CCC

The biggest fallout will ultimately be the number of personal and business bankruptcies unfortunately. Having lives through the impacts of a world war our parents and grandparents lived cautiously, unfortunately our generation less so. However, the idea of losing approx. 10% of the over 80’s is a scary prospect and right now dwarfs the long term impacts. Especially if you are in the Care Home business. On the upside, there should be a good supply of Honda Jazz’s....

Basically if you’re over 65, smoke or have any pre-existing condition you will be left to die when the peak hits. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/ the issue today isn’t whether you will have a business, it’s whether you will have a life, family or customers. And car finance applications down 70% with one leading provider.

Sorry, it was a scarcastic comment aimed at the fact that Zoopla is AT, not a retailer Cazoo business model is far more complicated than Zoopla.

Comment from an Italian friend (lives in London, family in Italy) when I mentioned it was mainly an issue for the elderly: “no, not just old, unless you consider 45 yo people as old? There’s hundreds currently connected to a ventilator, across all age ranges, including 38 children”

I’m pondering how Zoopla make money, they don’t actually sell houses do they? Cazoo is actually selling cars so his previous sucesss running an online showroom that makes money from advertising isn’t so relevant here. I wish Mr Chesterman well, I think he’s doing a great job of hoodwinking investors out of their money.

The saying is “when the going gets tough, the tough get going”. So it’s not going to doom and gloom for everyone but IF there is a full blown recession of the back of the crisis then people will need to work a bit harder to make business a success. In my view a recession is a good thing, it gets rid of weaker businesses and lets the strong survive and thrive. It usual results in credit availability being tightened and that should stop the stupidity of buying prices which have hit margins for many. For example, It may create buying opportunities as cash strapped punters are forced to sell cars to pay mortgages (And if credit reduction chokes auction demand wbac values will drop). A recession is part of the natural cycle of business, just as Corona is just part of the nature’s cycle too. I’m not “worried” about what’s going to happen but I do think you have to be prepared for it. Such events are those that bring reality back to people, and cause changes in behaviour. Having lived through World Wars our grand parents were much more cautious and careful than later generations. This is not that, but it is likely to be a reminder of planning for tomorrow as well as living for today. Curious as to what business this is? That’s a serious hit in what is 3 weeks? I hope you are able to trade through it and survive.

This is why people are putting off buying cars, not fear of being ill, fear or losing their job. Tourism down, trade interrupted, etc. As I said before we’re overdue a recession and I suspect this will be the trigger. Big, unnecessary purchases are the first thing to go. I suspect the cheapy market where people just need replacement transport will be ok, and may increase as people cut costs, but just replacing a car when it’s three years old because you fancy a change becomes an unnecessary luxury. The rule of putting money aside in the good times to see you through the bad times (and to take advantage of the buying opportunities it creates too) applies right now.

5% death rate in Italy (deaths/reported cases). That’s why it’s front page news, far higher than SARS, Swibe flu, etc. As someone old enough to remember real recessions (the Financial crisis was a walk in the park), then I’m wary. But a serious crash was well overdue anyway, get it done with. Buying prices should see some sanity return and there will always be an opportunity to sell. The ones who face the most risk are those that rely on volume and have a high level of debt. Same as ever was.

Biggest issue is passing it onto elderly folks.

Who knows. I think the reality is we’re overdue a recession, the central banks have been trying to avoid one for some reason by constantly lowering interest rates to keep the party going whatever the cost. If you look at profit levels for many businesses then they don’t match the stock valuations around. There is a good reason, why more FTSE chief executive’s have resigned/retired on the last 12 months than ever before. Corona was just the trigger, not the cause. In lots of ways it’s good for the waterline to drop a bit as there seem to be too many people out there happy to operate on wafer thin margins or trading purely on volume to keep debt under control.

Per month? Our experience was that reviews mattered more to customers, and selling/describing the car properly.

Stock market valuations were getting insane though so this correction is way overdue. Creates a buying opportunity, though my experiences over the last 12 months have taught me to trust no business when it comes to long term profit. Too many companies cooking the books, accountancy firms turning a blind eye and investors with money to burn (cazoo springs to mind). Physical assets feel safer.

How did they get it so wrong? I guess the market just changed? Cheap finance, the euro making German cars cheaper than they were under the Deutschmark, and bmw/vag/mb lowering their quality standards. Good cars but everyone wants to look like they are minted not sensible. kids run mk1 focus’s probably the best second hand car that exists. Maybe they need to bring back Roger Clark....

I wonder if Mr. Chesterman will be taking a nice wage from Cazoo whilst his investors lose all their money in 3 yrs?

One thing I’ve learnt from here (and where we went wrong), is the more expensive the car, the better the part ex and the more opportunity to make a profit. We too started with the cheapies and moved up but wasted too long at the bottom end of the market. I was like you, a knowledgeable enthusiast, experienced in starting and running companies, and had dabbled in buying and selling and done nicely on the occasional opportunist car, but making good money from trading regularly was far harder, and I jacked it in when I got offers to do other stuff which gave a large regular income with half the effort. I’d stick to potatoes. From my own experience I know where there’s muck there’s brass.

No, the Corona was very reliable. The virus is spreading just as reliably unfortunately.

Sold an R53 Cooper S via FB and felt the same. In the end I binned the last price brigade and went with the buyer who seemed clued up and sensible (driving instructor) In some ways the faults helped, declared at time of sale and clear the car wasn’t a normal retail car. However....can’t pretend I didn’t worry about a call for the first few weeks after it sold.

Virtually no enquiries from their platform. I think the brand helped a bit as a start up before we had a few reviews but we dropped it as soon as we could. I think AA are owned by Centrica (?), just trying to milk the brand name, no interest in delivering value for money.

Turnover is vanity, profit is sanity.

Surely the price markers will drive down market prices in a spiral? Dealers lower prices to get to market valuation and so the average price continues to fall, so dealers lose prices, etc.? (though hopefully not all would engage in such madness though I’m sure many will). Thus margins lower and companies go out of business decreasing Autotraders client base (as dealers pay their wages, not buyers). At best they are making AT a less attractive option than EBay, FB, etc?

This exactly based on similar experiebce

We had a customer try it on claiming we were liable for new rear shocks 6 months after he purchased the car as his mate has told him he could as the fault must have been there when he bought it. I just sent a very “legal” style letter quoting the relevant parts of the CRA which recognises that on older cars faults can be random and pointing out the age of the vehicle, mileage and the price paid vs the cost of the vehicle new. We’d had it serviced and MOT’d before sale to prove roadworthiness and condition at point of sale. Never heard from him again after that. Even though in this case it’s clearly BtB the its worth reading the CRA with respect to used cars as it’s relatively good at recognising the issues that may occur with older cars and the reality of wear and tear. The problems you get when you actually give a warranty with the vehicle is a different kettle of fish mind, and if you sell vehicles locally arguing the toss about the CRA may make you right but not popular in the neighbourhood.

The best way to make a small fortune is to start with a big one if Autotrader has their heads screwed on they’d be out bidding CarGurus on Google to stop them getting established, however I suspect they are too focussed on short term profit to invest in maintaining their market share. Big benefit car gurus have with private ownership will be that the owner can keep pumping money in without anyone to answer to. in reality we’re all losers from this as customers are now spread across multiple platforms (With subsequent increase in costs to reach buyers), go back 20 years and it was Autotrader or local paper only.

Curious to know what level of profits car gurus are making if they are paying for Google advertising to drive traffic.

Got to be £1m plus at today’s return rates