CCC

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/23/car-rental-firm-hertz-files-for-bankruptcy-protection-in-us No mention of Uk numbers but I’m guessing some of the 30,000 cars per month they will be selling off will be in the UK?

Looking at the forecasts on unemployment and finance in the FT today. It’s not pretty and starts at the top. No more including bonuses for city bods in the mortgage calculations as likely there won’t be any. Property takes a dip, etc. If asset prices hold up its going to be due to the inflation caused by money printing. There will be opportunities but best sit tight and let things work themselves out first.

There is a saying that if you owe the bank a bit of money you’ve got a problem. If you owe them a lot of money they’ve got a problem. in the financial crisis a friend had two mates, 1 owed £1m, the other £20mn. The one who owed £1m got a letter calling in the loan/overdraft. The one who owed £20m got a phone call asking him to come in so they could discuss it.

Did you apply for CBILS? thinking about it, sensible for them to make it clear that money should be directed towards them, not taken in salaries before declaring bankruptcy. Having worked for a business where a creditor went spectacularly bust on us resulting in a 180 degree change in credit management, then everyone can expect forensic approach to any monies owing to the banks and finance houses going forward I’d guess.

Sensible would be to sit on your hands and see which way the market goes. Pay of stocking loans if it’s flat, invest in stock if it’s bouyant. I can see many people spending money on stock at existing price levels then getting burnt even worse when the likely drop in demand comes. I just can’t see demand going back to where it was, higher unemployment and tightening credit availability as a result.

They really said it like that? Though if you don’t engage with them I can see they’d get twitchy. How many dealers will replace stocking loans with bounce back loans?

Surely this above? This crisis will be 2009 with bells on. How many people likely to be unemployed? And those who are still in employment will be in fear of their jobs. As 2009 was primarily an issue for the banks the knock on to unemployment was quite low. People are taking about unemployment going from 3.9% to 10% as a minimum. Dump stock, take the hit then start re-stock as it is looking a lot like lower prices within the 6-8 week period after normal supply resumes. I suspect there will be a rush of dealers initially trying to restock will keep prices up in the first week or so?

Not that I condone not paying but if they refuse to engage then non payment might get them to answer your calls. Frankly, if they are mortgage free then they are amateur landlords if they aren’t looking after their long term interests by looking after your interests. IIRC they become liable for rates on vacant premises so a reminder that losing tenants whilst have no prospect of getting more is going to cost them dearly. Weve a few BTL’s and whilst I don’t offer rent reductions if a tenant contacts me we’ll work something out and we’ve offered reductions in the past to good tenants as that’s cheaper than empty, finders costs and increasing risk of damage.

My money’s against that as dropping revenue receipts further would weaken the pound heavily and we’re going to be up against it anyway, but as we’re in uncharted territories who knows. The only thing that the financial investment press seems to convinced is likely is high inflation in a year or so. At least that will reduce the monetary value of their debts, student debts, and mortgages.

Always wondered why you’d do that, and why manufacturers want it, given that online was the direction of travel. Next is probably one of the best run companies in the UK, despite people saying that people want to try clothes on in shops they’ve invested in online sales and returns mechanisms, and have max 5 yr leases on stores so they can exit them easily. Right now that’s looking like a brilliant strategy but to be fair Simon Wolfson is a shrewd guy and built the company for the long term as most people saw it.

Given that the high level of finance in the car industry and the over reliance of PCP had been flagged as a risk by the BofE before this hit, the last thing I can see the government doing is trying to get the industry back to where it was. Any stimulus will be targeted towards sustainable employment I’d be thinking.

Quite a lot I suspect. Many seem to think things will revert back to as they were when lockdown lifts. I think they may be rudely surprised.

The main thing I’m seeing forecast is inflation, welcomed by the government to inflate away their debts, ditto those with student loans, etc. I’m not sure bailing the uk is the solution unless you avoid the US or Europe who are likely to experience similar. Time to buy property and sit tight I think.

One thought. Get something with a decent camera for stock photos/videos? i bought an iPhone XR last year as it has great battery life due to its size and has a decent camera which can give depth photography when used with the Halide app. The iPhone X and 11 have even better depth built in. Id stick with iPhone if that’s what you’ve already got as then transferring all your info over is easy, if you go to a shop (or have a teenager at home) they’ll probably do it for you. As a long time iPhone user I find using an Android phone quite hard. As for network, then just choose the cheapest in your area with decent reception locally. I’m on o2 but 3 seem to be generally cheaper. I’ve found 3 customer service as good as any, and we got an answer from the Chief Exec when my son emailed him!

This is very amusing - bonus points if you can tell who did the backing music.

For me this was a day that was always going to come, just not as fast as Corona virus forced it. Sales are moving online, so online marketing skills (which Ling has by the bucket) where always going to become more important than ever. It’s going to be about building proper relationships with customers for the long term not just transactional ones. Many here will have repeat customers and be good at this, just need to take that online, others will be relying on price which increases margin pressure. Investing in Gin palaces whilst the direction of travel to online was always madness. Invest in customer service but not premises to look swanky. Demand has been driven by cheap finance and false impressions of employment guarantees. Finance will dry up heavily I’m sure as lending criteria tighten (ie actually become realistic) and everyone has learned employment is not guaranteed. Supply of new cars might tighten but used cars are well built and reliable so we’ll just see more being repaired rather than scrapped for a £500 repair. Some will go to the wall, some will adapt and thrive. But it should be more sustainable business going forwards.

Don’t knock the site. It’s got a clear message, we’re fun and we’re cheap. It’s not going to be confused with any other site either, more than you can say for most dealers sites. ultimately Ling isn’t a car dealer but arguably the most effective E-commerce leasing business in the UK. I suspect more lease customers have heard about Ling than any other Lease/Brokerage owner?

The wage bit is a smart bit of business by Aldi/Lidl. They have a much lower staffing level so they knew that increasing salaries in the sector would be a big impact onto their competitors who’ve been forced to pay closer to Aldi/Lidl levels. They get their pound of flesh from staff to with higher productivity than their competitors.

Been doing lots of cycling, roads are incredibly quite especially the backroads, pheasants now roam without risk. They won’t know what’s hit them when traffic suddenly returns.

Happy to be corrected but looking at at the PLC accounts shows 1% net profit before tax and most of their current assets are inventory, which will have the ability to lose value quite quickly at present I’d suggest. I need to watch the video but to me it didn’t look a healthy picture before Covid, let alone after. Turnover is vanity, profit is sanity.

Probably the worst timing in the world to launch a car sales business.

I think the point was that we will pay as a society in some way as money doesn’t get conjured up from nowhere without implications. lets hope it’s higher taxes, not hyper inflation.

My dad helps with a local food bank. A lot of checks go in before people receive good to prevent fraud. I had a similar view beforehand but from talking to him 50% are genuine long term cases, eg disabled having to pay rent, 50% short term, eg people who’ve over stretched themselves on finance and then lose job, can’t work due to illness etc. As has been said in other threads, I think finance has been an elelphant in the room for a long time (as had been flagged by the BofE) and will not longer be so widely available.

From what I see the problem many of the large companies have is that they’ve taken on debt and returned operating cash to shareholders and management. So share prices driven up artificially whilst putting the business in a vulnerable position that only worked whilst the carousel kept turning at speed. Not a situation an owner/operator would let happen. I’ve learnt over a variety of experiences in recent months that accounting tricks and deception is far too widespread to ever invest in the stock market again, unless as a tracker. Fortunately my losses are minor compared to many.

Rumour has it WBAC is now WDBAC and has stopped purchases, anyone else heard that?