Not the cheeriest of stories, but here's the picture from Germany

[James Baggott 227]

After nine days back at work, German dealers are reporting business at 40 per cent normal levels. 

Full story here:

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/investigation-german-dealers-suffer-collapsed-car-buyer-demand-week-theyre-allowed-back-work/191222

[Paul C 75]

I am surprised they're surprised.

Would be interested what price range you surveyed - for example new and £10k-30k might be 40% down; but is £2k-£4k down too?

Regarding the UK, I suspect there will be a proportion of dealers who will do everything they can to NOT open in the near future, given that they will probably lose money at a higher rate than they are currently, especially with the majority of their sales team furloughed. I think the only ones which stand a chance are those which were either 90-100% of the way there with online selling (as in, reducing the customer contact to 0 visits or 1 visit to finalise everything and collect it). You'd have taken the risk to invest in the internet tech pre-lockdown and that risk will reward you well now.

Also I reckon most people who simply "wanted" (didn't NEED) a car before, don't want it now. And a good proportion of those who needed one before don't need it any more, at least for the next few months ( household 2>1 car, or lost job, or try fix broken car).

[New year revolutions...... 197]

17 minutes ago, Paul C said:

I am surprised they're surprised.

 

Me too

I put a long post but it won't be read ,so I know what I think anyway.

[have a word with the wife 299]

The key way to stimulate this country after lockdown in my opinion is to reduce vat ...

[Zest 7]

 

16 minutes ago, have a word with the wife said:

The key way to stimulate this country after lockdown in my opinion is to reduce vat ...

and they key way to make up for the shortfall in funding and recuperate grants is the raise vat?

 

i mean, how else will the gov get back all this money they're dishing out for free?

[Paul C 75]

They can stimulate the economy via additional credit and/or additional money (QE) however with the economy being global and especially the car industry interlinked, the prosperity of the UK will be somewhat tied to others. So there's always a tie but relative success can be achieved if better than those others (eg China, USA, Europe).

Regarding actual stimulus measures, I would rank the car industry, on a crude measure of "how badly affected by CV19" at about 4/10. Compare with, say, pubs 10/10, the airline industry 8/10, other retail 3/10, IT industry 0/10 (unaffected or additional opportunities are here), etc.

They may choose to lower VAT as a stimulus because its quite easy to do but I suspect they'll target stimulus a bit more towards those sectors of business which are both more adversely affected AND critical to the country's infrastructure - so expect the airline industry to get some extra money but we're well down the list.

There is something of a finite limit on how much stimulus can be pumped into the economy, thus the rate of progress and the length of time it will take to get back to where we were. And I think it will tend towards QE than credit due to the problems of the 2009 financial crisis. 

[have a word with the wife 299]

18 minutes ago, Zest said:

 

and they key way to make up for the shortfall in funding and recuperate grants is the raise vat?

 

i mean, how else will the gov get back all this money they're dishing out for free?

By "stimulating" the economy.

having re read the link it seems car sales in germany was one of the first allowed back to trade, so hardly surprising that the sales are low, just read somewhere that germany may reintroduce lockdown, and as we all know our none essential job will be one of the last to be reintroduced, so maybe james that makes it a bit "cheerier" ?

 

[CCC 31]

Given that the high level of finance in the car industry and the over reliance of PCP had been flagged as a risk by the BofE before this hit, the last thing I can see the government doing is trying to get the industry back to where it was.

Any stimulus will be targeted towards sustainable employment I’d be thinking. 

Edited April 29, 2020 by CCC

[New year revolutions...... 197]

8 minutes ago, CCC said:

Given that the high level of finance in the car industry and the over reliance of PCP had been flagged as a risk by the BofE before this hit, the last thing I can see the government doing is trying to get the industry back to where it was.

Any stimulus will be targeted towards sustainable employment I’d be thinking. 

And stimulating the market with a vat reduction

Think about it all us furloughed with cash in the bank and a cupboard full of bog rolls

We want to be incentivised to spend our dosh and put money into the economy and the easiest and cheapest way is vat at 15% we are leaving the eu so from December we can do it legally

Boris you got this information for free and dont forget kiddie clothes are vat free too

Edited April 29, 2020 by New year revolutions......
.

[CCC 31]

My money’s against that as dropping revenue receipts further would weaken the pound heavily and we’re going to be up against it anyway, but as we’re in uncharted territories who knows. The only thing that the financial investment press seems to convinced is likely is high inflation in a year or so. At least that will reduce the monetary value of their debts, student debts, and mortgages. 

[have a word with the wife 299]

Edited April 29, 2020 by have a word with the wife

[MarkTVS 209]

Well I can see where their coming from, I was planning on buying myself something fancy soon from a main dealer but due to my businesses entering unchartered waters I am holding off on this till normal life resumes and I’m sure the majority of people will be in a similar situation that said I think the cheaper end of the market will increase.

people not wanting to renew £500pm Bmw pcp deals may flock to cheap tuna rounds for the interim period.

[awc1000 93]

1 hour ago, MarkTVS said:

Well I can see where their coming from, I was planning on buying myself something fancy soon from a main dealer but due to my businesses entering unchartered waters I am holding off on this till normal life resumes and I’m sure the majority of people will be in a similar situation that said I think the cheaper end of the market will increase.

people not wanting to renew £500pm Bmw pcp deals may flock to cheap tuna rounds for the interim period.

sounds fishy........

[trade vet 702]

11 hours ago, MarkTVS said:

Well I can see where their coming from, I was planning on buying myself something fancy soon from a main dealer but due to my businesses entering unchartered waters I am holding off on this till normal life resumes and I’m sure the majority of people will be in a similar situation that said I think the cheaper end of the market will increase.

people not wanting to renew £500pm Bmw pcp deals may flock to cheap tuna rounds for the interim period.

The way I translate that is.You we’re going to buy a daft car for yourself with your own money at retail from a main dealer.Please tell me I am wrong .

I don’t understand PCP chucky agreements that much but will hirers not be offered extended deals at cheaper rentals to protect residual values..................oh and I agree it would be great for the economy up there if tuna arrived in Scottish waters !!!!

[metcars 397]

Who’s selling £2-4K with contactless  delivery and online ordering?

More to the point how are you buying stock?

[New year revolutions...... 197]

57 minutes ago, metcars said:

Who’s selling £2-4K with contactless  delivery and online ordering?

More to the point how are you buying 

If someone Pm's you the answer please can you let me know too

Thanks,ex car dealer furloughing his grow bag which was once a setteee

[MarkTVS 209]

2 hours ago, trade vet said:

The way I translate that is.You we’re going to buy a daft car for yourself with your own money at retail from a main dealer.Please tell me I am wrong .

I don’t understand PCP chucky agreements that much but will hirers not be offered extended deals at cheaper rentals to protect residual values..................oh and I agree it would be great for the economy up there if tuna arrived in Scottish waters !!!!

Yes tv that is about correct except autocorrect is to blame for changing cheap run abouts to tuna.

We are selling circa 4k stuff contactless with touch wood no major issues so far.

[metcars 397]

51 minutes ago, New year revolutions...... said:

If someone Pm's you the answer please can you let me know too

Thanks,ex car dealer furloughing his grow bag which was once a setteee

At a push I could probably sell, but no way would i buy anything without hearing it and lifting the bonnet? 

[Rory RSC 596]

2 hours ago, MarkTVS said:

Yes tv that is about correct except autocorrect is to blame for changing cheap run abouts to tuna.

We are selling circa 4k stuff contactless with touch wood no major issues so far.

Why not just buy a lumpy car trade without retail mark up and drip it up yourself? works out much cheaper mate. Got a good broker for stuff like that if you want to PM me. Aldermore / Alphera still have very high residuals.

[trade vet 702]

1 hour ago, Rory RSC said:

Why not just buy a lumpy car trade without retail mark up and drip it up yourself? works out much cheaper mate. Got a good broker for stuff like that if you want to PM me. Aldermore / Alphera still have very high residuals.

Also in case you accountant hasn’t mentioned,you can charge the company 45p per mile expenses for business journeys providing you keep records. ( unless you are an MP )

[MarkTVS 209]

The main issue is getting what I want in an auction or in the trade anywhere. But if someone comes across a mclaren 570s in orange or purple with nose lift then let me know  

To be honest though I would be terrified of buying something like that at auction incase it had issues. The main dealer warranty reassures me a bit!

thanks though Rory might give you a pm when I find something though as I will probably finance it myself rather than taking their option.

[trade vet 702]

35 minutes ago, MarkTVS said:

The main issue is getting what I want in an auction or in the trade anywhere. But if someone comes across a mclaren 570s in orange or purple with nose lift then let me know  

To be honest though I would be terrified of buying something like that at auction incase it had issues. The main dealer warranty reassures me a bit!

thanks though Rory might give you a pm when I find something though as I will probably finance it myself rather than taking their option.

Excellent choice,those McLarens are really good.We could only afford a Silver Cross,paid in readies.

[Rory RSC 596]

Ok McLaren I would only buy from a dealer for the warranty aswell. i would also be well prepared to lose a few quid on one but still wouldn’t say no.

[New year revolutions...... 197]

2 hours ago, trade vet said:

Excellent choice,those McLarens are really good.We could only afford a Silver Cross,paid in readies.

Wife got the silver cross over the McLaren

We did go for the updated suspension and the white walls of course

[James Baggott 227]

Love the 570S. Could never ever live with the infotainment system. It’s the most infuriating thing in the world. Great car to drive but I’d go mad with that before the need of the first week. 

See the value of this?

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/mclaren-supercar-sells-online-auction-half-original-price-drops-temporary-blip/191325