Recession Looming?

[David Horgan 564]

The economy is heading up not down isn't it ,making our own choices will be the benefit not the disaster but that's brexit and its also very British .

Every business that goes to the wall has done something wrong THEMSELVES not Brexit , Not the lack of trade , not the so called lack of customers . 

They actually stretched their business with too  heavy a loans  , Stock funded , overdrafts , finance loans , 2nd mortgages and the rest they get up to .

Looks good , even great on paper but they just push too FAR . 

They forget that a loan is there in principle to making money to invest BACK in the business not spend on houses, holidays, and whatever  else .

So those that choose this way to achieve the business are their own regression in the making if they don't control it , some lots don't .

I feel for those who go under for genuine reasons , but the high flying loan mad junkies that go bust , " good riddance i say " 

I was taught the hard way , sell invest , sell invest , slower i admit& harder oh it is ,  but when it gets going and the takings are yours as well as the profits its a nice feeling as many of you old school traders will agree with . 

 

[CCC 31]

I’m torn. There will be rich pickings but for those who lose their jobs, businesses and homes then I have sympathy with those who just ended up in the wrong place and the wrong time.

 

In truth we’ve had it too good for too long, and sooner or later we need a reset. I think those who think house prices etc only go one way might learn what those of us who remember the 80’s learnt 40 yrs ago.

[Mojo121 229]

16 minutes ago, CCC said:

I’m torn. There will be rich pickings but for those who lose their jobs, businesses and homes then I have sympathy with those who just ended up in the wrong place and the wrong time.

 

In truth we’ve had it too good for too long, and sooner or later we need a reset. I think those who think house prices etc only go one way might learn what those of us who remember the 80’s learnt 40 yrs ago.

It’ll be a boom for those who recognise the highs and lows. 

[metcars 397]

35 minutes ago, David Horgan said:

The economy is heading up not down isn't it ,making our own choices will be the benefit not the disaster but that's brexit and its also very British .

Every business that goes to the wall has done something wrong THEMSELVES not Brexit , Not the lack of trade , not the so called lack of customers . 

They actually stretched their business with too  heavy a loans  , Stock funded , overdrafts , finance loans , 2nd mortgages and the rest they get up to .

Looks good , even great on paper but they just push too FAR . 

They forget that a loan is there in principle to making money to invest BACK in the business not spend on houses, holidays, and whatever  else .

So those that choose this way to achieve the business are their own regression in the making if they don't control it , some lots don't .

I feel for those who go under for genuine reasons , but the high flying loan mad junkies that go bust , " good riddance i say " 

I was taught the hard way , sell invest , sell invest , slower i admit& harder oh it is ,  but when it gets going and the takings are yours as well as the profits its a nice feeling as many of you old school traders will agree with . 

 

I'm guessing you're not a businesses that relies on trading with the EU? Or one that's been tasked with 'finding new markets'. I'm sure your business is rock solid, but where do your customers work?

[David Horgan 564]

35 minutes ago, metcars said:

I'm guessing you're not a businesses that relies on trading with the EU? Or one that's been tasked with 'finding new markets'. I'm sure your business is rock solid, but where do your customers work?

I'm certainly not reliant on trade with the EU , But i remember when two friends lost their trawlers after the EU stole their fishing grounds , one committed suicide actually his losses were so high , We lost touch with great traders after we joined the Common mkt and wasn't allowed to trade with them, after that it got worse   . So trading deals works both ways in my view and i have never liked the close shop EU way . 

Regards my customers and yours , My view again is there will be customers in abundance when we get Britain back under our control again and stop the EU taking our factories and work out of this country , Plenty of British people would like the work I bet and that's were all our customers are , give people the work and pay them " they will spend it if they have it in their pockets " that money is no good for Britain  if its in a Dutch/French/Polish/ workers pocket . We cant pay them if we don't make things , That's were my customers are .

Regard trading with the EU , what on gods earth makes people think the EU farmers , Car Makers , Wine cheese and anything else trades wont want to trade with us after we leave , we want Britain back not build a bloody wall , we like our EU friends , its not war . We just need control back . watch others leave when we go . 

I for one don't believe a down turn  is heading our way , but we need out before we lose anything else , to make it work , or we will get the euro , and a bunch of rules and they will bleed us dry doing it . 

[sellect2 19]

2 hours ago, David Horgan said:

I'm certainly not reliant on trade with the EU , But i remember when two friends lost their trawlers after the EU stole their fishing grounds , one committed suicide actually his losses were so high , We lost touch with great traders after we joined the Common mkt and wasn't allowed to trade with them, after that it got worse   . So trading deals works both ways in my view and i have never liked the close shop EU way . 

Regards my customers and yours , My view again is there will be customers in abundance when we get Britain back under our control again and stop the EU taking our factories and work out of this country , Plenty of British people would like the work I bet and that's were all our customers are , give people the work and pay them " they will spend it if they have it in their pockets " that money is no good for Britain  if its in a Dutch/French/Polish/ workers pocket . We cant pay them if we don't make things , That's were my customers are .

Regard trading with the EU , what on gods earth makes people think the EU farmers , Car Makers , Wine cheese and anything else trades wont want to trade with us after we leave , we want Britain back not build a bloody wall , we like our EU friends , its not war . We just need control back . watch others leave when we go . 

I for one don't believe a down turn  is heading our way , but we need out before we lose anything else , to make it work , or we will get the euro , and a bunch of rules and they will bleed us dry doing it . 

This

[Nick M.K. 574]

I personally think the downturn is already here, consumer confidence is destroyed, the value of the pound is destroyed, crime is through the roof, morale is rock bottom and all this before “we” have even exited. 

A small island in the North Atlantic will be great again after tearing itself from the rest of Europe. Yeah, right...

[sellect2 19]

52 minutes ago, Nick M.K. said:

I personally think the downturn is already here, consumer confidence is destroyed, the value of the pound is destroyed, crime is through the roof, morale is rock bottom and all this before “we” have even exited. 

A small island in the North Atlantic will be great again after tearing itself from the rest of Europe. Yeah, right...

We seemed to do ok before being in “Europe “

in-fact we signed up for a common market- 8 countries if I remember correctly. Far from what it is now. 

The EU even wants its own anthem for gods sake!! I’m am not European, I’m British and proud  

Europe need to trade with us as much as we want to trade with them, so that can be sorted. We can also trade with the rest of the world once out- a far bigger market by the way. 

So it may be quite at the minute, because the country is consumed with the outcome, and the politicians lie and line their own pockets in the turmoil. We just need to get out- that’s what was voted for, and those politicians that block it are committing treason as far as I’m concerned.  

 

 

[CRW 73]

4 hours ago, sellect2 said:

Plenty of British people would like the work

I fear you have too high an opinion of the British population. 

We also forget that if we want a trade deal,  with the EU post 31st October, the first thing they will ask for is the £39bn divorce bill. No pay, no play. They don’t need us, all the numbers are in their favour!

Yes we can do trade deals with the rest of the world, but that nice bit of Newlyn cod landed this morning is going to be pretty rancid by the time it’s shipped to Australia.

But hey, it’s all going to be fine, because that spotty little twat with a broom sweeping the yard outside, he’s going to be on £10.50 an hour! No he won’t, he will be unemployed.

Edited October 5, 2019 by CRW

[awc1000 93]

5 hours ago, CRW said:

I fear you have too high an opinion of the British population. 

We also forget that if we want a trade deal,  with the EU post 31st October, the first thing they will ask for is the £39bn divorce bill. No pay, no play. They don’t need us, all the numbers are in their favour!

Yes we can do trade deals with the rest of the world, but that nice bit of Newlyn cod landed this morning is going to be pretty rancid by the time it’s shipped to Australia.

But hey, it’s all going to be fine, because that spotty little twat with a broom sweeping the yard outside, he’s going to be on £10.50 an hour! No he won’t, he will be unemployed.

I fear you have too low an opinion of the british population,

granted there are some lazy useless fookers aboutbut we are generally as a nation grafters, skilled, wealthy, entrepreneurial, 

Leaving the EU v the UK car industry, well there will likely be pain for franchises with increased cross border import duty / crap supply etc as we are already seeing with some manufacturer's aborting us with build slots for more favourable exchange rate markets (try buying a new toyota chr here at the moment) , but the reality is everyone on this forum is in the used car game and none of us are exporting used cars, and for those that do sell the odd car into europe to vlad and his factory mates well it won't even be 1%of your business and will not be missed, keep an eye on that spotty twat you mentioned sweeping the yard because now that he earns £10.50 an hour he is going to be in the market for a used car soon and is your future audience.

the EU is a club that thinks its the like the football premiership with 19 top team members, trouble is in reality it is like the scottish premiership with 4 teams and the rest making up the numbers, i'm not interested in being in a league that subsidises other country's with shit economy's and high unemployment, if i was exporting cheap shit out of a factory into europe i would be worried, but i'm not worried because i'm selling used cars to u.k residents who work in the many industry's that will carry on being great.

yes there will be exceptions, but the u.k is now so wealthy we can take some financial pain in the short term no problem, as for european business not wanting to trade with us well that is utter bollocks, one example of many - bmw shift 65000 3series in the u/k a year, that's even more sales than fords mondeo, i don't see bmw loosing the appetite for this anytime soon, they like others will simply test us with a price increase and then revert to a reduced factory margin as plan b, and so will everyone else. and in the unlikely event that the arse does fall out of the new car market that will only be good news for us used car dealers.

here's the current facts - regards size we are currently the second lowest country in europe for unemployment at just 3.8%, many of the union countrys are in the shit with +10% unemployment with some as high as 15% , so we must be doing something right.

i've seen many things happen in the u.k car trade since we have been a united europe and let me tell you increased competition hasn't done u.k used dealers any good, iv'e stood at manheim colchester at a merc direct sale and watched 80% of the late mercs sell to cypriot traders at silly money, no problem with that but the cars then leave this economy - no good for us, iv'e sold a £14k octavia vrs to a very nice polish chap who worked nights at tesco, good for him he deserved it with his epic work ethic, but the car then left the country, again no good for us if all the vrs stock went east, which it did for a while. once these units leave they no longer support the traditional food chain during their life cycle from servicing to ending up as a banger here, these areas are important to this industry as a whole, if it becomes cost prohibitive for europeans to trade in a brexit u.k economy then sorry but the reality is it will be good news for us u.k dealers who contribute to the ecomomy here and here alone.

i'm looking forward to leaving, reverting to just competing with other u.k traders who have the same legit overheads as me will suit me just fine.

anyone who is still pro remain europe and in the u.k used car game and not happy - you are more than welcome to leave and go test your business model in europe...let us know how you get on

[BHM 994]

4 minutes ago, awc1000 said:

i'm not interested in being in a league that subsidises other country's with shit economy's and high unemployment,

+1

5 minutes ago, awc1000 said:

many of the union countrys are in the shit with +10% unemployment with some as high as 15%

...and imagine what the real percentages would be if all of those who emigrated for work had to return to their original countries. Greece’s youth unemployment is something like 40%! Poland only has about 6% unemployment but there’s a skills shortage due to emigration & they’re now attracting in various old Eastern Bloc workers & shipping in Indians - like the UK, Indian takeaway may eventually become Poland’s favourite food 

[awc1000 93]

2 minutes ago, BHM said:

+1

...and imagine what the real percentages would be if all of those who emigrated for work had to return to their original countries. Greece’s youth unemployment is something like 40%! Poland only has about 6% unemployment but there’s a skills shortage due to emigration & they’re now attracting in various old Eastern Bloc workers & shipping in Indians - like the UK, Indian takeaway may eventually become Poland’s favourite food 

interesting times,  some parts of spain who don't see tourism currently have one third out of work, i think poland suffered such an exodus of skilled workers that their government eventually had to act by upping the working wage, i know it did mean a lot of skilled polish workers went back home, many have stayed here who settled and had children and realised an education here was more beneficial, can't blame them for that

the reality is despite all the doom mongers the u.k is still very much envied by a lot of the world regards skills multi industry's etc and wealth, think we will be just fine after brexit.

[CCC 31]

7 hours ago, CRW said:

I fear you have too high an opinion of the British population. 

We also forget that if we want a trade deal,  with the EU post 31st October, the first thing they will ask for is the £39bn divorce bill. No pay, no play. They don’t need us, all the numbers are in their favour!

Yes we can do trade deals with the rest of the world, but that nice bit of Newlyn cod landed this morning is going to be pretty rancid by the time it’s shipped to Australia.

But hey, it’s all going to be fine, because that spotty little twat with a broom sweeping the yard outside, he’s going to be on £10.50 an hour! No he won’t, he will be unemployed.

The warehouse my former business used tried to actively employ British workers. Took on 5, none came back for the second week.

Meanwhile the Poles, Romanians etc, all put down roots, buy new homes and furnish them, pay taxes, spend money here.  More so than the ageing UK population who's growing need is simply care (my mum spends £100 a month outside utilities, she has no need for anything as she's got enough clothes, furniture, etc.

The simple fact is that the economy is a demographics game and with a rapidly ageing UK population we need new blood to fill jobs, pay taxes, etc. 

Without immigration then look at Japan for the last 20 yrs to see where our economy will go. 

And yes, we can export, but it's far more complicated exporting to India, etc. than France.  For a start you'll be wanting payment guarantees which will cost you, plus exchange rate risk is far greater. Plus our currency will have to drop another 10-20% to make us competitive vs Eastern Europe (I left engineering around 2000 when it was clear many of the UK''s manufacturers where moving East).

I don't see it ending well but for some of us, then yes, rich pickings. 

[awc1000 93]

25 minutes ago, CCC said:

The warehouse my former business used tried to actively employ British workers. Took on 5, none came back for the second week.

Meanwhile the Poles, Romanians etc, all put down roots, buy new homes and furnish them, pay taxes, spend money here.  More so than the ageing UK population who's growing need is simply care (my mum spends £100 a month outside utilities, she has no need for anything as she's got enough clothes, furniture, etc.

The simple fact is that the economy is a demographics game and with a rapidly ageing UK population we need new blood to fill jobs, pay taxes, etc. 

Without immigration then look at Japan for the last 20 yrs to see where our economy will go. 

And yes, we can export, but it's far more complicated exporting to India, etc. than France.  For a start you'll be wanting payment guarantees which will cost you, plus exchange rate risk is far greater. Plus our currency will have to drop another 10-20% to make us competitive vs Eastern Europe (I left engineering around 2000 when it was clear many of the UK''s manufacturers where moving East).

I don't see it ending well but for some of us, then yes, rich pickings. 

point is the ageing generation has contributed over their whole life here, and yes they may not contribute much in retirement but on their passing their wealth gets inherited and will stay in this economy and will  "go again", this is not the ethic of a foreign workforce who will simply follow a labour rate elsewhere when the numbers stack up, can't blame them for following the money, yes in the meantime they contribute here but very few have long term plans to put down roots here and what they gain here will at some point leave this economy.

i think you are right regarding some engineering / manufacturing but these industry's have always been at the mercy of labour rates elsewhere with staff being their main overheads, not sure what happened regarding the 5 british workers you mentioned, but maybe a poor labour rate had a factor in it combined with being useless fookers, what were they doing?

Edited October 6, 2019 by awc1000
spelling

[tradegirl 112]

12 hours ago, Nick M.K. said:

I personally think the downturn is already here, consumer confidence is destroyed, the value of the pound is destroyed, crime is through the roof, morale is rock bottom and all this before “we” have even exited. 

A small island in the North Atlantic will be great again after tearing itself from the rest of Europe. Yeah, right...

Nick, I'm not too into politics, but I think most of the damage was done by the current Tory leadership, not because of Brexit. Crime and policing is down to their budget, and they have severely messed up the country.

[Grantlfc81 88]

We don’t need Europe, they need us. We are a huge importer of their products.

[metcars 397]

2 hours ago, CCC said:

The warehouse my former business used tried to actively employ British workers. Took on 5, none came back for the second week.

Meanwhile the Poles, Romanians etc, all put down roots, buy new homes and furnish them, pay taxes, spend money here.  More so than the ageing UK population who's growing need is simply care (my mum spends £100 a month outside utilities, she has no need for anything as she's got enough clothes, furniture, etc.

The simple fact is that the economy is a demographics game and with a rapidly ageing UK population we need new blood to fill jobs, pay taxes, etc. 

Without immigration then look at Japan for the last 20 yrs to see where our economy will go. 

And yes, we can export, but it's far more complicated exporting to India, etc. than France.  For a start you'll be wanting payment guarantees which will cost you, plus exchange rate risk is far greater. Plus our currency will have to drop another 10-20% to make us competitive vs Eastern Europe (I left engineering around 2000 when it was clear many of the UK''s manufacturers where moving East).

I don't see it ending well but for some of us, then yes, rich pickings. 

It's easy to be more competitive, lower wages. Because working conditions have always been a barrier to trade? Not that I think the sinister characters like 'rees mogg' have this in mind long-term?

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics in the twentieth century." ~ Bevan

[XFS 70]

Weak leadership and a gullible electorate is our main problem. 

Now we have some toff in charge who thinks he is above the law. He is not a strong leader, he is a devious self serving individual with a sense of entitlement.

I have no idea how to address this. I guess we need need a new broom, where it is coming from I don’t know.

Whether or not Brexit happens will not cure the deep rooted problems of weak government and a gullible electorate.

I just want Brexit out of the way one way or another. 

 

[Grantlfc81 88]

16 minutes ago, XFS said:

Weak leadership and a gullible electorate is our main problem. 

Now we have some toff in charge who thinks he is above the law. He is not a strong leader, he is a devious self serving individual with a sense of entitlement.

I have no idea how to address this. I guess we need need a new broom, where it is coming from I don’t know.

Whether or not Brexit happens will not cure the deep rooted problems of weak government and a gullible electorate.

I just want Brexit out of the way one way or another. 

 

sounds like you are a remainer lmao

[awc1000 93]

13 minutes ago, XFS said:

Weak leadership and a gullible electorate is our main problem. 

Now we have some toff in charge who thinks he is above the law. He is not a strong leader, he is a devious self serving individual with a sense of entitlement.

I have no idea how to address this. I guess we need need a new broom, where it is coming from I don’t know.

Whether or not Brexit happens will not cure the deep rooted problems of weak government and a gullible electorate.

I just want Brexit out of the way one way or another. 

 

agreed, trouble is the tory's are clearly the best of a bad lot at the moment, god forbid corbyns clown party ever get into power, we would be digging coal again and having tax levy's for steam power

[XFS 70]

13 minutes ago, awc1000 said:

agreed, trouble is the tory's are clearly the best of a bad lot at the moment, god forbid corbyns clown party ever get into power, we would be digging coal again and having tax levy's for steam power

There lies the problem.

There is simply no party worth voting for.

16 minutes ago, Grantlfc81 said:

sounds like you are a remainer lmao

Makes no difference. Remain or don’t remain. Either way the fundamental problem is still there.

[Jack Regan 116]

We should of been out a year max , after the vote .... it's the 80% plus of politicians who don't want to leave and are trying to block every avenue of leaving ..... and as for the Lib Dems are they for real.

[awc1000 93]

2 minutes ago, XFS said:

There lies the problem.

There is simply no party worth voting for.

Makes no difference. Remain or don’t remain. Either way the fundamental problem is still there.

well we are leaving and that's that, and i think the u.k motor trade will be ok when the brexit dust settles, the real biggest worry for our industry will be a future election with an outcome possibility of a coalition formed of labour and the green party, that would be a disaster- steam driven bicycles

[BHM 994]

1 minute ago, Jack Regan said:

and as for the Lib Dems are they for real.

 The Party is so in touch with reality it’s now got Jo Swinson at the helm. I guess the Lib Dems decided they don’t want to return to power anytime soon.

[Nick M.K. 574]

1 hour ago, Jack Regan said:

it's the 80% plus of politicians who don't want to leave

And at the moment approx 80% plus of the population including 99% of the NI population...