Will the used car prices crash or is this the new Norm?

[asj09 0]

Hi All

What do we think will happen once the used car market settles down to the new norm?

Will there be a big crash resetting the prices to how they SHOULD be? Or will this be the new normal?

For example... car worth £16k in Jan-21, now worth £20k... Normal market the car would be worth £15k now. 

once the market settles will the price come down from £20k to £15k? or will £20k be the new price and normal depreciate starts from there?

 

thanks!

[CCC 31]

The normal laws of supply and demand will decide. I guess the reality is it depends on how the economy is doing as to whether it’s a gradual return or a sharp one.

[David Horgan 564]

2 hours ago, asj09 said:

Hi All

What do we think will happen once the used car market settles down to the new norm?

Will there be a big crash resetting the prices to how they SHOULD be? Or will this be the new normal?

For example... car worth £16k in Jan-21, now worth £20k... Normal market the car would be worth £15k now. 

once the market settles will the price come down from £20k to £15k? or will £20k be the new price and normal depreciate starts from there?

 

thanks!

if the mkt crashes it will wipe out lots of traders , cant see that happening .

Enough are going to the wall now with cash flow problems , 

We are working hard to UP with the increase prices , 

Earn 2k on a car now and you need that same 2k to buy the same stock , hence not made money . 

So we are at the point were we CANT go backwards or its bye bye traders . 

my guess this is the new norm , get used to it , Hope it stays this way for all our sakes 

 

[petrol head 46]

I may be wrong, but we are heading to a winter of discontent:

- Energy prices rising

- Shortage of CO2

- Wage inflation

- Shortage of goods (empty shelves)

- long NHS waiting lists

- Possible re intro of lockdown

All the above likely to affect used car prices negatively IMHO.

[Lakeside 94]

It’s got to crash at some point, there’s going to come a time when joe public are simply going to find it cheaper to keep their current car running than pay these stupidly inflated prices of recent times. 

As already said it’s only due to supply and demand at the min, no other reason. As soon as new car production it back up to speed and new sales are back up used stock will be fed back onto the market and the prices will come down.

This is why I’m being very careful with what I buy at the min. It’s feels very much like dealing with stocks and shares. 

Edited September 23, 2021 by Lakeside

[BHM 994]

11 minutes ago, Lakeside said:

come a time when joe public are simply going to find it cheaper to keep their current car running than pay these stupidly inflated prices of recent times. 

I think that time is now (at least in the sub £5K market). Punters are buying because they HAVE to (their car’s fucked, written-off or the MOT tester has condemned it). 

It seems to me that EVERYONE knows secondhand prices are up & at the lower levels a man with £2-3K in his pocket soon realises that he’s now in the position of looking at cars that would have been £1-2K pre-Covid. Every week I get punters on the phone thinking they’ve got the whip hand, I pity them if they get the same response elsewhere as they get here.

Ultimately it’s a market & the market determines prices.

 

Edited September 23, 2021 by BHM

[metcars 397]

58 minutes ago, BHM said:

I think that time is now (at least in the sub £5K market). Punters are buying because they HAVE to (their car’s fucked, written-off or the MOT tester has condemned it). 

It seems to me that EVERYONE knows secondhand prices are up & at the lower levels a man with £2-3K in his pocket soon realises that he’s now in the position of looking at cars that would have been £1-2K pre-Covid. Every week I get punters on the phone thinking they’ve got the whip hand, I pity them if they get the same response elsewhere as they get here.

Ultimately it’s a market & the market determines prices.

 

Again, I wonder what it’s like for guys that source stock from private sellers?

but you’re spot on with the bottom end of the market. The prices at the block can be insane for old shutters? Where’s  the profit? I’m guessing it’s the fault of these youtubers making millions from ‘flipping cars’ that are creating an influx of newbies?

Edited September 23, 2021 by metcars

[BHM 994]

31 minutes ago, metcars said:

The prices at the block can be insane for old shutters?

Online I see what I’d consider to be scrap (or at least I’d offer £150-200 scrap money as a p/x) making £500 on the hammer. What the fuck they do with it once the AH fees are added & the MOT tester has cast his eye over it I’ll never know.

Half-decent £3-5K cars (trade money) all seem to be about £1000 (give or take) into book at the moment. I’ve never prayed for shitty old trade-ins as much as I have recently 

[Lakeside 94]

8 minutes ago, BHM said:

Online I see what I’d consider to be scrap (or at least I’d offer £150-200 scrap money as a p/x) making £500 on the hammer. What the fuck they do with it once the AH fees are added & the MOT tester has cast his eye over it I’ll never know.

Half-decent £3-5K cars (trade money) all seem to be about £1000 (give or take) into book at the moment. I’ve never prayed for shitty old trade-ins as much as I have recently 

This is another thing we was thinking the other day aswell….

We watched a grade 3, 09 plate focus, Capping clean at £1375 fetch £2900 at bca last week. With fee’s and prep you’d be looking at probably £3500 providing there’s nothing serious wrong with it. You’d have to retail that at £4000+ to be even worth it.

Now the kind of customer buying a car like that is probably going to want to trade in their 06-07 plate Astra/focus? As dealers we’d probably be being generous offering £500 for their p/x depending on condition etc.

So it’s then basically going to cost the customer £3500+ to upgrade to a car of similar spec only a couple of years newer and not even to anything desirable.

Surely no customer in the right mind is going to do that?  

[David Horgan 564]

35 minutes ago, Lakeside said:

Surely no customer in the right mind is going to do that?  

They have no choice , its that or walk , no one services or fixes anything , just conditioned to change it , when they have a shitter that needs a clutch its got to go , They will get used to it dont worry , 

 

 

 

 

 

[metcars 397]

1 hour ago, Lakeside said:

This is another thing we was thinking the other day aswell….

We watched a grade 3, 09 plate focus, Capping clean at £1375 fetch £2900 at bca last week. With fee’s and prep you’d be looking at probably £3500 providing there’s nothing serious wrong with it. You’d have to retail that at £4000+ to be even worth it.

I would be shitting myself that prices might slump back if I had a site full stock like that!

[Lakeside 94]

55 minutes ago, David Horgan said:

They have no choice , its that or walk , no one services or fixes anything , just conditioned to change it , when they have a shitter that needs a clutch its got to go , They will get used to it dont worry , 

 

 

 

 

 

This is my point, a clutch won’t cost them £3500

Edited September 23, 2021 by Lakeside

[TRADE SURVIVOR 33]

9 hours ago, petrol head said:

I may be wrong, but we are heading to a winter of discontent:

- Energy prices rising

- Shortage of CO2

- Wage inflation

- Shortage of goods (empty shelves)

- long NHS waiting lists

- Possible re intro of lockdown

All the above likely to affect used car prices negatively IMHO.

So all positive then! Chin up fella, I was pretty upbeat about the job prior to this, now think I need a lay down in a darkened room.   

[metcars 397]

5 hours ago, TRADE SURVIVOR said:

So all positive then! Chin up fella, I was pretty upbeat about the job prior to this, now think I need a lay down in a darkened room.   

Regardless, he is correct. Tough times are coming.

[CRW 73]

17 hours ago, metcars said:

Again, I wonder what it’s like for guys that source stock from private sellers?

I think this scenario sums it up.  Phoned a private seller with a Fiat 500, nice late model with 6k miles.  He was asking £8150.  It was a bit over book but we need stock.  Car is still available he says, but may not be for much longer.  He had tried WBAC who bid him £8k, then dropped to £7800.  However, since he had paid to advertise it on AT, they had upped their offer from £7800 to £8500.  So the reality was that I couldn't buy the car that was for sale at £8150 in AT, even for the advertised price, let alone have a discussion on price. Every time I see that tosser Schofield or that goofy berk Rylan on the tv adverts I'd happily throw the remote through the screen.

[metcars 397]

37 minutes ago, CRW said:

I think this scenario sums it up.  Phoned a private seller with a Fiat 500, nice late model with 6k miles.  He was asking £8150.  It was a bit over book but we need stock.  Car is still available he says, but may not be for much longer.  He had tried WBAC who bid him £8k, then dropped to £7800.  However, since he had paid to advertise it on AT, they had upped their offer from £7800 to £8500.  So the reality was that I couldn't buy the car that was for sale at £8150 in AT, even for the advertised price, let alone have a discussion on price. Every time I see that tosser Schofield or that goofy berk Rylan on the tv adverts I'd happily throw the remote through the screen.

Yeah I understand completely. The price volatility affects all of us? I wonder how niche markets have been affected, Supercars, RS/ST etc?

[David Horgan 564]

2 hours ago, metcars said:

Every time I see that tosser Schofield or that goofy berk Rylan on the tv adverts I'd happily throw the remote through the screen.

What the public don't realise is they feeding the mkt with expensive cars , and the prices just climb . 

Guy next to us bought two Transporters , £30k each brand new , We buy gave him £33k and because its trade to trade they will by pass the 6 months owner ship 

[BHM 994]

Today was an eye opener price-wise. I’ve seen everything from a 12yr old petrol Vectra on wheeltrims, a disastrous MOT (rotten subframes etc.), make exactly £1000 on the hammer to a six month old Defender, CAP Clean £41600, which made £62200.

I assume from those figures that new Defenders are a throw-the-book-away car, but scrap Vectras? 

Edited September 24, 2021 by BHM

[Tony911 79]

56 minutes ago, BHM said:

Today was an eye opener price-wise. I’ve seen everything from a 12yr old petrol Vectra on wheeltrims, a disastrous MOT (rotten subframes etc.), make exactly £1000 on the hammer to a six month old Defender, CAP Clean £41600, which made £62200.

I assume from those figures that new Defenders are a throw-the-book-away car, but scrap Vectras? 

The biggest question is did you manage to get any stock?

[Frank Cannon 812]

Surely they will crash....can't get any fuel for the buggers afterall 

 

And for the smart arses pointing to their EVs, majority of UK power stations are gas fired from memory

Edited September 25, 2021 by Frank Cannon

[Frank Cannon 812]

16 hours ago, BHM said:

Today was an eye opener price-wise. I’ve seen everything from a 12yr old petrol Vectra on wheeltrims, a disastrous MOT (rotten subframes etc.), make exactly £1000 on the hammer to a six month old Defender, CAP Clean £41600, which made £62200.

I assume from those figures that new Defenders are a throw-the-book-away car, but scrap Vectras? 

I know BHM, as a fellow old sweat, it's getting beyond a joke out there, indian territory. Bought one this week, not a gem either by any stretch bit, a few quid I wouldn't of had. 

I've been selling since 1979, bikes and cars. I know and understand that as car dealers we are pre-programmed to moan and whinge, too many cars not enough customers/too few cars too many customers,  I will say that I've never seen a market like this... 

Main agents, selling 12 year old crap thereby depleting stock on every level, margins a part time Gumtree pirate would turn their nose up at and, ever more needy and eye rolling customers.

This is one time I question not doing finance, never have and too late now. The only guys, I know, who are honestly doing ok, are nearly 100% strap. 

I'm having  month off, I've a garage project to get out the ground.....if I can get the blocks, the bricks, the concrete, the roof trusses etc

Just to keep things even it's not just us, a builder mate of mine is having a bit of a rough month again.....pointless quoting for jobs as materials keep increasing, customers not prepared to buy materials upfront (builders/car dealers all out to rip everyone off) , a few now seriously rethinking projects due to ever increasing costs/employment worries, had two jobs cancelled coming up to Christmas.....rang and offered to do my garage to keep his guys busy between starts........ after pissing me about for 6 month though and after I've gone elsewhere, builders ehh

 

Onwards and upwards though. 

Edited September 25, 2021 by Frank Cannon

[BHM 994]

27 minutes ago, Frank Cannon said:

Just to keep things even it's not just us, a builder mate of mine is having a bit of a rough month again.....pointless quoting for jobs as materials keep increasing, customers not prepared to buy materials upfront (builders/car dealers all out to rip everyone off) , a few now seriously rethinking projects due to ever increasing costs/employment worries, had two jobs cancelled coming up to Christmas.....rang and offered to do my garage to keep his guys busy between starts........ after pissing me about for 6 month though and after I've gone elsewhere, builders ehh

Nice to read such a cheery posting Funny though, slight change of tack but I can’t get hold of a one-man brickie for a small weekend job, was told by a builder that no-one wants little cash jobs anymore BUT also he’s pig sick of visiting houses to give quotes to find the house has a ‘For Sale’ sign nailed to the garden fence or they have no intention of getting the work done. On top of that, as you say building material prices increase daily so he’ll give estimates, not quotes, and the punters think he’s taking the piss out of them. Now he knows how we feel!  

I’m currently getting a few fitted wardrobes - the (small, local & friendly) company has installed the carcasses but now can’t afford the doors so want more money upfront to see them through “a tight spot” cos someone has (allegedly) bounced them for money on a big job - needless to say I’m reluctant to hand over more shilling to a company on the brink.

Anyway at these prices at my end of the market I’m due for a month off so you ain’t alone.

[Frank Cannon 812]

3 minutes ago, BHM said:

Nice to read such a cheery posting Funny though, slight change of tack but I can’t get hold of a one-man brickie for a small weekend job, was told by a builder that no-one wants little cash jobs anymore BUT also he’s pig sick of visiting houses to give quotes to find the house has a ‘For Sale’ sign nailed to the garden fence or they have no intention of getting the work done. On top of that, as you say building material prices increase daily so he’ll give estimates, not quotes, and the punters think he’s taking the piss out of them. Now he knows how we feel!  

I’m currently getting a few fitted wardrobes - the (small, local & friendly) company has installed the carcasses but now can’t afford the doors so want more money upfront to see them through “a tight spot” cos someone has (allegedly) bounced them for money on a big job - needless to say I’m reluctant to hand over more shilling to a company on the brink.

Anyway at these prices at my end of the market I’m due for a month off so you ain’t alone.

[metcars 397]

2 hours ago, Frank Cannon said:

Surely they will crash....can't get any fuel for the buggers afterall 

 

And for the smart arses pointing to their EVs, majority of UK power stations are gas fired from memory

I thought only teenagers thought electricity was free!

[David Horgan 564]

5 hours ago, Frank Cannon said:

This is one time I question not doing finance, never have and too late now. The only guys, I know, who are honestly doing ok, are nearly 100% strap.

100k today alone on finance deals . 

Put two cars up 2k from 23k to 25 k and sold them in 48 hrs . 

Cheap stuff is slower though , we have a cheapy dept and its slower than it should be , first timers are not buying due to no tests , well mixed up mess out there