Predictions

[A & S 20]

What's your prediction? when the lockdown is going to be lifted and we can start selling cars and vans again without the  restrictions.

[Casper 272]

45 minutes ago, A & S said:

What's your prediction? when the lockdown is going to be lifted and we can start selling cars and vans again without the  restrictions.

Christmas time before all restrictions are lifted is mine . Although hoping to be some time in June .. with restrictions in place I think May is optimistic 

[New year revolutions...... 197]

I honestly cant see how I can do my job properly until an antidote is found

So my prediction is were doomed

I do believe I've had it mind but until a safe test I'm not sure

[Casper 272]

18 hours ago, New year revolutions...... said:

I honestly cant see how I can do my job properly until an antidote is found

So my prediction is were doomed

I do believe I've had it mind but until a safe test I'm not sure

Problem is still never seen if we can get it twice .unless ive missed it 

Edited April 30, 2020 by Casper

[New year revolutions...... 197]

Just now, Casper said:

Problem is still never seen of we can get it twice .unless ive missed it 

This is why a test is so important in my mind

[Casper 272]

21 minutes ago, New year revolutions...... said:

This is why a test is so important in my mind

Id agree with that . 

[Halfpenny 114]

People keep talking about a vaccine, but that seems a long way off. What is probably more likely is that within the next six months an effective antiviral drug will be found that turns a Covid infection into something no worse than a bad cold. Like Tamiflu for the flu. Then we can get back to normal.  Apparently there's already about 12000 different antivirals in the back-catalogue, so hopefully at least one will work. Vaccine can come later.  Fingers crossed we'll be back to normal by Christmas, but by then about half the retail motor industry will be gone. The survivors will do well.

[metcars 397]

I can’t see being able to get back to the block in the near future? 

As I understand it any sort of ‘vaccine’ is a year away and even then they have found various strains of the virus as it mutates. Testing is great but only indicates if you have either had it or currently have symptoms. You won’t get immunity by having a test?

[Casper 272]

18 minutes ago, metcars said:

I can’t see being able to get back to the block in the near future? 

As I understand it any sort of ‘vaccine’ is a year away and even then they have found various strains of the virus as it mutates. Testing is great but only indicates if you have either had it or currently have symptoms. You won’t get immunity by having a test?

Its would need be regular testing i guess 

[TangoVictor32 90]

A test is meaningless. You can test negative today and catch it tomorrow. 

When lockdown is reduced, people will go crazy and infection rates will increase. 

We're no new zealand where people are sensible. We had idiots treating it like a holiday in parks having picnics and going to beach. 

[New year revolutions...... 197]

2 hours ago, TangoVictor32 said:

A test is meaningless. You can test negative today and catch it tomorrow. 

When lockdown is reduced, people will go crazy and infection rates will increase. 

We're no new zealand where people are sensible. We had idiots treating it like a holiday in parks having picnics and going to beach. 

A test is not meaningless  it means that your body either has already fought the virus, or you have never had it.

Think about it I would rather know I had had it so hopefully if I get it again I gave a fighting chance,or if I haven't then I will keep to being extra cautious like in Phoenix nights,,,,,,,,,,, get back you barrstard

Peter sarstead had it right,  it's no good if your resistance is low

[Anglo9 26]

1 minute ago, New year revolutions...... said:

A test is not meaningless  it means that your body either has already fought the virus, or you have never had it.

Think about it I would rather know I had had it so hopefully if I get it again I gave a fighting chance,or if I haven't then I will keep to being extra cautious like in Phoenix nights,,,,,,,,,,, get back you barrstard

Peter sarstead had it right,  it's no good if your resistance is low

Phoenix nights,,,,,,,,,,, get back you barrstard

[have a word with the wife 299]

On 4/29/2020 at 9:58 PM, A & S said:

What's your prediction? when the lockdown is going to be lifted and we can start selling cars and vans again without the  restrictions.

it was said by boris this evening that they will be watching the r number for at least a year, he also said that next week he will give details on how the lockdown will be lifted, not any details on when, in regard to "restrictions" my opinion  is at least 18 month [asked about face masks he said that may be a good thing] so if the r was to raise by bringing back none essential business then it could be 12 month, other than that my crystal ball is all fogged up 

[Casper 272]

11 minutes ago, have a word with the wife said:

it was said by boris this evening that they will be watching the r number for at least a year, he also said that next week he will give details on how the lockdown will be lifted, not any details on when, in regard to "restrictions" my opinion  is at least 18 month [asked about face masks he said that may be a good thing] so if the r was to raise by bringing back none essential business then it could be 12 month, other than that my crystal ball is all fogged up 

What about the lottery number then  with the crystal ball lol Nicola sturgeon says she can't even see anything being resisted here in Scotland yet next week a friend of mind who is working in a construction company has had a letter hoping for there return in 2 weeks can't see it myself I've another mate who works for another company  and a  brother who is sub contracted to another business through his company and there saying mid June a lot of industry work is going to suffer not just car sales I predict 

[Roberto 4]

As a customer. I think ALL dealerships WILL open on 11 May. The answer to it is very simple. ALL customers must wear facial covering of some sort and wear disposable or cloth gloves, because as you know, car buying is a very tactile business.Protective screens fitted to service desks and handwash should be made available. Social distancing rules should also apply and a limit of customers in the showroom at any time. You are not going to see miles of customers queuing outside like supermarkets so this should'nt be a problem. So, if these rules are applied I see no reason not to open on 11 May.

Edited May 3, 2020 by Roberto

[Casper 272]

53 minutes ago, Roberto said:

As a customer. I think ALL dealerships WILL open on 11 May. The answer to it is very simple. ALL customers must wear facial covering of some sort and wear disposable or cloth gloves, because as you know, car buying is a very tactile business.Protective screens fitted to service desks and handwash should be made available. Social distancing rules should also apply and a limit of customers in the showroom at any time. You are not going to see miles of customers queuing outside like supermarkets so this should'nt be a problem. So, if these rules are applied I see no reason not to open on 11 May.

Very sensible first time post I'm in the trade but I've friends and family in construction who are also being lettered by there employers hoping for may 11th guess we will wait and see what Thursday and Boris brings 

Edited May 3, 2020 by Casper

[Paul C 75]

Along with everyone else, I have no idea what's going to happen. I am wondering if they canvassed all areas of business with the question "if there was a partial lift of the lockdown, how would you adapt your business to minimise the negative effects of the crisis" or something along those lines. I can see it happening very very gradually so don't assume we'll be first (or second...) but there's obviously some sectors with really big problems - for example pubs with live gigs, squished into a small venue, there's no real prospect of social distancing in something like that. Or cinemas, theatres, etc

For car dealers, there is a wide variety of settings. The big posh dealers with 20 ft high ceilings and spacey indoors showrooms can demonstrate SD fine; so can the yards which are basically outdoors (just do the paperwork away from customer then leave it near the door of the small office/portacabin for them to look at and sign, or something similar). But there's a few in between I'd not fancy having to work out a viable plan. And test drives.....hmmmmmmm. So, fingers crossed some common sense and thoughtful planning rather than the "emergency" rushed nature of the imposition of the lockdown and throwing money/loans/grants at the problem is shown.

Similar for auctions, there's not too great an alteration to their normal working methods to get things going and compliant with SD.

Once trading in a near-normal level starts, the fun begins. We will have a better idea of supply and demand; hopefully any supply chain issues are worked out once the auctions start flowing again (new cars excepted) so prices should become more predictable. I personally think demand will be up for <£3k, flat for £3-6k and down for everything else. New cars - I don't think the supply issue is as bad as feared; but the demand will be so poor that supply won't be an issue, and many manufacturers will be struggling in 6-12 months. Along with this, some of the (posh) franchise dealers will suffer badly too. 

[Boycie 30]

48 minutes ago, Casper said:

Very sensible first time post I'm in the trade but I've friends and family in construction who are also being lettered by there employers hoping for may 11th guess we will wait and see what Thursday and Boris brings 

Construction is as normal round here, the bloke behind our house is having his garden landscaped, on the ring road they are building a pub, hotel and Costa, they haven't stopped. The motorways are being resurfaced as well.

[Casper 272]

16 minutes ago, Boycie said:

Construction is as normal round here, the bloke behind our house is having his garden landscaped, on the ring road they are building a pub, hotel and Costa, they haven't stopped. The motorways are being resurfaced as well.

Interesting to hear Boyce Seen some still working on the news London way I'm in Scotland 3 seperate companies that family and friends for had closed all there sites for lockdown that I know off 

Edited May 3, 2020 by Casper

[have a word with the wife 299]

without ppe we can't do anything ?

[New year revolutions...... 197]

13 minutes ago, have a word with the wife said:

without ppe we can't do anything ?

You can 

You can stay shut till it's safe to open,when that is is anyones guess

I'm still trying to work out the point of opening if once a customer sits in a car and twiddles his arse in it and doesn't buy it in needs sanitizing again and by whom and how much are you going to pay them going in with the full ppe and a feather duster

There isn't an answer yet

 

 

[New year revolutions...... 197]

On 4/29/2020 at 10:55 PM, New year revolutions...... said:

I honestly cant see how I can do my job properly until an antidote is found

So my prediction is were doomed

I do believe I've had it mind but until a safe test I'm not sure

Boris agrees with me

See it in the papers tomorrow monday 4th may

Your roving reporter is now off to bed

[Roberto 4]

3 hours ago, Paul C said:

Along with everyone else, I have no idea what's going to happen. I am wondering if they canvassed all areas of business with the question "if there was a partial lift of the lockdown, how would you adapt your business to minimise the negative effects of the crisis" or something along those lines. I can see it happening very very gradually so don't assume we'll be first (or second...) but there's obviously some sectors with really big problems - for example pubs with live gigs, squished into a small venue, there's no real prospect of social distancing in something like that. Or cinemas, theatres, etc

For car dealers, there is a wide variety of settings. The big posh dealers with 20 ft high ceilings and spacey indoors showrooms can demonstrate SD fine; so can the yards which are basically outdoors (just do the paperwork away from customer then leave it near the door of the small office/portacabin for them to look at and sign, or something similar). But there's a few in between I'd not fancy having to work out a viable plan. And test drives.....hmmmmmmm. So, fingers crossed some common sense and thoughtful planning rather than the "emergency" rushed nature of the imposition of the lockdown and throwing money/loans/grants at the problem is shown.

Similar for auctions, there's not too great an alteration to their normal working methods to get things going and compliant with SD.

Once trading in a near-normal level starts, the fun begins. We will have a better idea of supply and demand; hopefully any supply chain issues are worked out once the auctions start flowing again (new cars excepted) so prices should become more predictable. I personally think demand will be up for <£3k, flat for £3-6k and down for everything else. New cars - I don't think the supply issue is as bad as feared; but the demand will be so poor that supply won't be an issue, and many manufacturers will be struggling in 6-12 months. Along with this, some of the (posh) franchise dealers will suffer badly too. 

Yes! Test drives could be a problem, although in my experience, I've been on many test drives ( particularly used cars) where I've had the keys given and left to my own devices which gives you a better "feel" for the car rather than someone breathing down your neck as it were. Maybe in the case of new cars the customer could leave something of value at the dealership, house keys, smartphone a small returnable deposit perhaps. In any case if both parties are PPE'd up there should'nt be a problem.

[Roberto 4]

On 4/29/2020 at 9:58 PM, A & S said:

What's your prediction? when the lockdown is going to be lifted and we can start selling cars and vans again without the  restrictions.

I'm not a dealer, but, I love this forum. Everybody is so civil and of course I love talking about cars. I do have a vested interest in joining though  because my new car is sitting in the showroom and bloody Johnson shut it down 3 days before I was due to collect. So I have been reading CDM articles to get an inkling of when dealers would open again.

[DCS01 27]

A few of the people at the dealer I used to work at (large plc) are saying 11th for workshop and early June for sales.