How long can traders hang on if we went to lock down like Italy

[David Horgan 564]

Just wonder if anyone has a plan to deal with a month long lock down and limiting movement of people .

Going to be harder for the new businesses to cope with money flow at a low point . 

Might be catastrophic for bigger outfits on loans too .

Hope you all get through it if it gets to that point . 

 

[JA Trader 58]

Just now, David Horgan said:

Just wonder if anyone has a plan to deal with a month long lock down and limiting movement of people .

Going to be harder for the new businesses to cope with money flow at a low point . 

Might be catastrophic for bigger outfits on loans too .

Hope you all get through it if it gets to that point . 

 

I have just taken on a decent amount of debt as this all started

Luckily it also means i have some cash to get us through this. My car gurus account renewal is soon so i might dwindle that right down to penny pinch.

Tempted to offer free delivery within 100 miles to the ones who fear traveling to try and get us through.

[Halfpenny 114]

This could last for months. I think the economic effects will be a lot more serious than people think. This stacks on top of Brexit, which I am sure is going to be bumpy. The general population will suffer a fall in income and unemployment will probably rise. Big purchases will be a low priority.

Two weeks ago I had a discussion with my partner and basically we are not buying anything in until we see how this pans out. We have cash in the bank to cover all liabilities for the next few months and will go into 'survival mode'.

Incidentally I have just come back to the UK after a couple of months relaxing in the Far East.  Bangkok airport was being kept spotless - cleaners continually wiping down handrails, lift buttons etc and alcohol gel dispensers everywhere. Same story in Dubai with thermal scanners and a team of medics checking all arriving passengers.  Birmingham - Nothing!  Went into the arrival area toilets and they were dirty and smelly. Took an hour to get my baggage. A real 'third world' feel in the UK nowadays. I have zero confidence in the government handling this potential disaster or indeed Brexit.

[sparky 274]

Opportunity to 'get straight' and work on the golf swing. Although judging by today's prices, it looks like business as usual.

[Row 71]

14 minutes ago, C B said:

My plan is full steam ahead!!! 

I'll cross any doom and gloom bridges if and when I come to any. 

Certainly won't be battening any hatches, scaling back or similar. 

If anything I'll be going harder, and bmore positive. 

I cannot physically stand all the scare mongering and the absolute morons who are out panic buying pasta and toilet rolls!! 

One thing's for sure. I won't stop buying, working, looking for opportunities or doing any less than I already do. 

I may even buy a hazmat suit and change all my 'attention grabbers' to....... CORONAVIRUS SUFFERS WELCOME' 

Here here CB, same here (apart from the attention grabber) :-)

[EPV 631]

1 hour ago, C B said:

My plan is full steam ahead!!! 

I'll cross any doom and gloom bridges if and when I come to any. 

Certainly won't be battening any hatches, scaling back or similar. 

If anything I'll be going harder, and bmore positive. 

I cannot physically stand all the scare mongering and the absolute morons who are out panic buying pasta and toilet rolls!! 

One thing's for sure. I won't stop buying, working, looking for opportunities or doing any less than I already do. 

I may even buy a hazmat suit and change all my 'attention grabbers' to....... CORONAVIRUS SUFFERS WELCOME' 

Agreed.

I remember when bird flu was going to kill us all, swine flu, SARS. I can assure you now, if this happened 6 months ago, it would be 2nd or 3rd news story behind Brexit. It's filling column inches by the yard at the minute and a sustained drop of warm weather coupled with a bit more vigilance and awareness from the human population and it will be forgotten in a few months. Some people love a drama and misery loves it's company.

Somehow we, as a nation (and a world) managed to cope and survive past a number of world wars. I reckon we can cope with this.

Edited March 10, 2020 by EPV

[CCC 31]

5% death rate in Italy (deaths/reported cases). That’s why it’s front page news, far higher than SARS, Swibe flu, etc.
 

As someone old enough to remember real recessions (the Financial crisis was a walk in the park), then I’m wary. But a serious crash was well overdue anyway, get it done with.

Buying prices should see some sanity return and there will always be an opportunity to sell.

The ones who face the most risk are those that rely on volume and have a high level of debt. Same as ever was. 

Edited March 10, 2020 by CCC

[Halfpenny 114]

55 minutes ago, EPV said:

Agreed.

I remember when bird flu was going to kill us all, swine flu, SARS. I can assure you now, if this happened 6 months ago, it would be 2nd or 3rd news story behind Brexit. It's filling column inches by the yard at the minute and a sustained drop of warm weather coupled with a bit more vigilance and awareness from the human population and it will be forgotten in a few months. Some people love a drama and misery loves it's company.

Somehow we, as a nation (and a world) managed to cope and survive past a number of world wars. I reckon we can cope with this.

Italy has much better healthcare than UK and their hospitals are being completely overwhelmed. They are not even looking at anyone over 65 years old or who has cancer or diabetes.  This will be the UK in a few weeks' time.  Yes we survived wars in the past, but at huge cost and many millions died. Don't be complacent.

I agree with CCC that those sitting on a lot of debt will be the first to fall.

[EPV 631]

12 minutes ago, Halfpenny said:

Italy has much better healthcare than UK and their hospitals are being completely overwhelmed. They are not even looking at anyone over 65 years old or who has cancer or diabetes.  This will be the UK in a few weeks' time.  Yes we survived wars in the past, but at huge cost and many millions died. Don't be complacent.

I agree with CCC that those sitting on a lot of debt will be the first to fall.

I'm not being complacent. It's the flu. the coronovirus isn't news albeit this particular strain is and like most winter illnesses, they are precisely that, seasonal. 

It's utterly hysterical the way some people are behaving and if you want to indulge in that sort of mindset, please feel free. In a few weeks time, if we're on lockdown like Italy, you'll have the glory of saying "I told you so" but I'm saying now you won't be.

[Highlinev8 28]

19 minutes ago, EPV said:

I'm not being complacent. It's the flu. the coronovirus isn't news albeit this particular strain is and like most winter illnesses, they are precisely that, seasonal. 

It's utterly hysterical the way some people are behaving and if you want to indulge in that sort of mindset, please feel free. In a few weeks time, if we're on lockdown like Italy, you'll have the glory of saying "I told you so" but I'm saying now you won't be.

I dont think the thread is about how as a country we are going to survive. Obviously we will make it through as usual.

The thread is about disruption of business. Lets be honest buying a new car is not going to be on peoples priority lists right now. We are about a week behind Italy statistically and they are closing borders and cancelling flights right now. 

I'm not in a position to go into semi retirement for a few months so I will be out buying cars again tomorrow as usual...but its going to get messy. I suppose this time next week we will see a truer lay of the land.

[CRW 73]

21 minutes ago, Highlinev8 said:

We are about a week behind Italy statistically

Slight difference was theirs began with a major cluster in the North, it was rife before they had a chance to react. Ours seems pretty well spread, no idea if that will make a difference though.  We seem to be having circa 50 cases a day and should it remain around that then I would be fairly positive.  Lets just hope for some warmer weather and battle on in the meantime! 

[EPV 631]

26 minutes ago, Highlinev8 said:

I dont think the thread is about how as a country we are going to survive. Obviously we will make it through as usual.

The thread is about disruption of business. Lets be honest buying a new car is not going to be on peoples priority lists right now. We are about a week behind Italy statistically and they are closing borders and cancelling flights right now. 

I'm not in a position to go into semi retirement for a few months so I will be out buying cars again tomorrow as usual...but its going to get messy. I suppose this time next week we will see a truer lay of the land.

Buying a NEW car may not be on people's priority list but buying a car for some, is a necessity, not a choice. 

So what we're saying here, is in order for our industry (sales) to be slowed, we're talking about a small percentage of the buying population, that being, those who are looking for a car just "because" and also happen to be frightened about a cold. 

Where I imagine it will impact, is supplies, so tyres, parts, whatever. I don't really imagine it will have a serious effect on regular sales. No more than brexit, the world cup, the rain, the cold, the snow, the heat, the kids off school, the kids back to school, the tennis, Christmas, summer holidays, the clouds, moon and sky and dozens of other influences on the industry. I hope I'm right anyway but I have to say everyone I have spoken to, customers, friends, family, neighbours, everyone is completely non-plussed about it all and are carrying on as-you-were, save for the more frequent trip to wash their hands, which can only be a good thing anyway.

2 minutes ago, CRW said:

Slight difference was theirs began with a major cluster in the North, it was rife before they had a chance to react. Ours seems pretty well spread, no idea if that will make a difference though.  We seem to be having circa 50 cases a day and should it remain around that then I would be fairly positive.  Lets just hope for some warmer weather and battle on in the meantime! 

That and the fact we are an island. That in itself cannot be underestimated.

Edited March 10, 2020 by EPV

[Highlinev8 28]

2 minutes ago, EPV said:

Buying a NEW car may not be on people's priority list but buying a car for some, is a necessity, not a choice. 

So what we're saying here, is in order for our industry (sales) to be slowed, we're talking about a small percentage of the buying population, that being, those who are looking for a car just "because" and also happen to be frightened about a cold. 

Where I imagine it will impact, is supplies, so tyres, parts, whatever. I don't really imagine it will have a serious effect on regular sales. No more than brexit, the world cup, the rain, the cold, the snow, the heat, the kids off school, the kids back to school, the tennis, Christmas, summer holidays, the clouds, moon and sky and dozens of other influences on the industry. I hope I'm right anyway but I have to say everyone I have spoken to, customers, friends, family, neighbours, everyone is completely non-plussed about it all and are carrying on as-you-were, save for the more frequent trip to wash their hands, which can only be a good thing anyway.

When I say "New", I mean New to them, so all car purchases. Of course people that are in need of a replacement car will still be buying. I tend to sell high spec-low miles German, that kind of stock could get sticky.

Anyway I hope you are right but I'm looking at the economic picture, stock market and currencies are fluctuating to this degree is a bad sign. I'm not going into panic mode but I expect it to slow down, next couple of weeks are key.

[New year revolutions...... 197]

1 hour ago, EPV said:

I'm not being complacent. It's the flu. the coronovirus isn't news albeit this particular strain is and like most winter illnesses, they are precisely that, seasonal. 

It's utterly hysterical the way some people are behaving and if you want to indulge in that sort of mindset, please feel free. In a few weeks time, if we're on lockdown like Italy, you'll have the glory of saying "I told you so" but I'm saying now you won't be.

just making this a sticky

[trade vet 702]

34 minutes ago, Highlinev8 said:

When I say "New", I mean New to them, so all car purchases. Of course people that are in need of a replacement car will still be buying. I tend to sell high spec-low miles German, that kind of stock could get sticky.

Anyway I hope you are right but I'm looking at the economic picture, stock market and currencies are fluctuating to this degree is a bad sign. I'm not going into panic mode but I expect it to slow down, next couple of weeks are key.

Solo/ doorstep operators will be OK and probably don’t need to trade.For the guys with the premises and the staff that have to sell X number of cars a week to stand still,it is another story.I have been watching CNBC all day and listening to experienced financial experts and medics and I hope they are wrong.Its not just the virus,it’s the Russian/Saudi row and the knock on effect as huge oil companies may be forced into bankruptcy putting thousands out of work.

[EPV 631]

13 minutes ago, New year revolutions...... said:

just making this a sticky

I have zero problem being wrong, pin it to your wall mate, no problem 

[Halfpenny 114]

2 hours ago, EPV said:

 

That and the fact we are an island. That in itself cannot be underestimated.

LOL! Are you serious?  The virus made its way from central China to places like Italy and Iran. I doubt the Channel is much of an impediment. 

1 hour ago, trade vet said:

Solo/ doorstep operators will be OK and probably don’t need to trade.For the guys with the premises and the staff that have to sell X number of cars a week to stand still,it is another story.I have been watching CNBC all day and listening to experienced financial experts and medics and I hope they are wrong.Its not just the virus,it’s the Russian/Saudi row and the knock on effect as huge oil companies may be forced into bankruptcy putting thousands out of work.

Agree.  For example, my youngest daughter works for one of the big travel companies. Bookings have dropped off a cliff. Company are talking about unpaid leave... she and her boyfriend have bills to pay.....

[EPV 631]

32 minutes ago, Halfpenny said:

LOL! Are you serious?  The virus made its way from central China to places like Italy and Iran. I doubt the Channel is much of an impediment. 

Agree.  For example, my youngest daughter works for one of the big travel companies. Bookings have dropped off a cliff. Company are talking about unpaid leave... she and her boyfriend have bills to pay.....

Places like Iran, a country bordered by a country also bordered by errr, China. Italians are tactile people, one kiss for them isn’t enough and even the fellas get up close and personal with each other. 

Being an island, one that is inhabited by people who traditionally, shy away from getting too close to each other and one that is on the brink of it’s typically warmest season, will help us a lot. 
 

 

 

[CCC 31]

56 minutes ago, Halfpenny said:

LOL! Are you serious?  The virus made its way from central China to places like Italy and Iran. I doubt the Channel is much of an impediment. 

Agree.  For example, my youngest daughter works for one of the big travel companies. Bookings have dropped off a cliff. Company are talking about unpaid leave... she and her boyfriend have bills to pay.....

This is why people are putting off buying cars, not fear of being ill, fear or losing their job.

Tourism down, trade interrupted, etc. As I said before we’re overdue a recession and I suspect this will be the trigger.

Big, unnecessary purchases are the first thing to go. I suspect the cheapy market where people just need replacement transport will be ok, and may increase as people cut costs, but just replacing a car when it’s three years old because you fancy a change becomes an unnecessary luxury.

The rule of putting money aside in the good times to see you through the bad times (and to take advantage of the buying opportunities it creates too) applies right now.

 

[EPV 631]

2 minutes ago, CCC said:

This is why people are putting off buying cars, not fear of being ill, fear or losing their job.

Tourism down, trade interrupted, etc. As I said before we’re overdue a recession and I suspect this will be the trigger.

Big, unnecessary purchases are the first thing to go. I suspect the cheapy market where people just need replacement transport will be ok, and may increase as people cut costs, but just replacing a car when it’s three years old because you fancy a change becomes an unnecessary luxury.

The rule of putting money aside in the good times to see you through the bad times (and to take advantage of the buying opportunities it creates too) applies right now.

 

Mate, people haven’t been buying new cars like that (3 years ownership and chop it in for a new ‘un) since early 2018, down to Brexit and uncertainty with petrol/diesel/electric. It’s got sod all to do with Coronavirus, it’s been like that for ages.

 

We’re never far away from a recession of some description and usually around a decade or two away from a full on collapse so predicting a recession is a pretty safe bet. 

[Del Boy 76]

1 hour ago, EPV said:

one kiss for them isn’t enough and even the fellas get up close and personal with each other

This made me lol! 
Reminded me of you and your valeter the other day! 

[EPV 631]

23 minutes ago, Del Boy said:

This made me lol! 
Reminded me of you and your valeter the other day! 

Christ I’d rather chop off my bollocks with a shovel. He’s gone anyway, I’ve got a full day of cleaning shitty Focus’ myself tomorrow. New valeter starting next week. 

[trade vet 702]

I have been through secondary banking crisis ( causing minimum 40% deposits ) ,2 long miners strikes,( one causing an energy crisis and 3 day working week or be fined ),quadrupling of oil price crisis  ( restricting finance up to 2 litres,petrol ration books issued ),the Falklands crisis and aftermath,Black Friday stock market crash,ERM crisis ( where basic variable rate mortgages went to 15%,yes 15%),Desert Storm,9/11,sub prime mortgage crisis ( when the banks went skint)  and others I have forgotten about.All of these have effected our trade and caused many dealers to take financial hits to keep going.Indications by medical and finance experts speaking on CNBC today fear this crisis could be worse......I certainly hope not.....cash is king,used car dealers should not expect any financial assistance which may be offered to other businesses.

[beenaroundtheblock 21]

Having watched what various medical professionals have had to say and also followed the news on how this coronavirus has spread I must admit to being a bit concerned. Im so glad i came on here and have had my mind put at rest by someone who started selling cars a few years ago.

"It's just the Flu"

[New year revolutions...... 197]

Quite a few articles from my factor have explonated in price recently

I'm awaiting an engineer to come and fix a machine for a company I'm using,

 

He can't come now no airyplanes

This company in the uk has 10 employees without a working machine they have no business

Anyone want to do the math across the world? If this goes worst worse

Oh I forgot it's only flu