Recession Looming?

[Casper 272]

3 hours ago, Jack Regan said:

We should of been out a year max , after the vote .... it's the 80% plus of politicians who don't want to leave and are trying to block every avenue of leaving ..... and as for the Lib Dems are they for real.

Agree 100 percent . The people voted .. and now the politicians are trying to hold it up or stop it  altogether 

[J.T 39]

I thought Labour were mad when they announced their idea for a £10 an hour minimum wage, then the Conservatives go one better and are suggesting £10.50 an hour. That's a 27% increase on the current minimum wage of £8.21 per hour. How can SME's in this climate where many are already struggling, afford to give their employee's a 27% pay rise?

The other problem is £10.50 an hour is approximately what a trainee nurse earns, now why would someone become a nurse with all that extra studying and the chance that they might kill someone when they can sweep the hospital floors for the same money and have none of the extra responsibility? They're either going to find it very difficult to recruit new nurses, or they will have to increase their wage and once you do that you'll have to increase every other nurse's pay grades. This knock on effect will occur in every business. 

I did have an employee until recently but it's just not an attractive proposition now to take someone else back on, as they're going to want £400 a week plus the extra contributions for NI and towards their pension. Then they're going to want me to pay them that amount not to come to work for 5 weeks of the year, whilst I end up doing their job and paying them not to. Then they want sick pay, maternity pay and there's employer liability insurance, my trade policy also increases etc etc.

I now have my cars valeted by the Syrians round the corner for £20 a car and finish them off myself to my standard, I'm saving money and don't have any of the headaches of being an employer and trust me it can be a real headache. My valeter decided to down tools one day and effectively sacked himself, then turns up to our meeting about it with a pile of colour pictures that he must have spent all night printing off of the dirty cars that I'd bought and made him clean! 

Only I could find a valeter that wanted me to have the cars valeted before he valets them!! He must have been taking these pictures for months, so I'm glad he left as he was an employment tribunal waiting to happen. 

[CCC 31]

We’re heading back to the 70’s, a big dose of inflation is probably heading our way, and the government don’t care as it reduces their debts. 

Interesting times ahead, increasingly so as no deal looks more likely by the day. Hope I’m wrong as transition with a deal will mean business as usual and a return of confidence.

 

[Casper 272]

1 hour ago, J.T said:

I thought Labour were mad when they announced their idea for a £10 an hour minimum wage, then the Conservatives go one better and are suggesting £10.50 an hour. That's a 27% increase on the current minimum wage of £8.21 per hour. How can SME's in this climate where many are already struggling, afford to give their employee's a 27% pay rise?

The other problem is £10.50 an hour is approximately what a trainee nurse earns, now why would someone become a nurse with all that extra studying and the chance that they might kill someone when they can sweep the hospital floors for the same money and have none of the extra responsibility? They're either going to find it very difficult to recruit new nurses, or they will have to increase their wage and once you do that you'll have to increase every other nurse's pay grades. This knock on effect will occur in every business. 

I did have an employee until recently but it's just not an attractive proposition now to take someone else back on, as they're going to want £400 a week plus the extra contributions for NI and towards their pension. Then they're going to want me to pay them that amount not to come to work for 5 weeks of the year, whilst I end up doing their job and paying them not to. Then they want sick pay, maternity pay and there's employer liability insurance, my trade policy also increases etc etc.

I now have my cars valeted by the Syrians round the corner for £20 a car and finish them off myself to my standard, I'm saving money and don't have any of the headaches of being an employer and trust me it can be a real headache. My valeter decided to down tools one day and effectively sacked himself, then turns up to our meeting about it with a pile of colour pictures that he must have spent all night printing off of the dirty cars that I'd bought and made him clean! 

Only I could find a valeter that wanted me to have the cars valeted before he valets them!! He must have been taking these pictures for months, so I'm glad he left as he was an employment tribunal waiting to happen. 

You might have cleaned them for him first lol

Edited October 6, 2019 by Casper

[BHM 994]

11 hours ago, J.T said:

He must have been taking these pictures for months,

WTF!?!!! Sounds like a nut job to me.

[Arfur Dealy 823]

On 10/5/2019 at 3:18 PM, David Horgan said:

The economy is heading up not down isn't it ,making our own choices will be the benefit not the disaster but that's brexit and its also very British .

Every business that goes to the wall has done something wrong THEMSELVES not Brexit , Not the lack of trade , not the so called lack of customers . 

They actually stretched their business with too  heavy a loans  , Stock funded , overdrafts , finance loans , 2nd mortgages and the rest they get up to .

Looks good , even great on paper but they just push too FAR . 

They forget that a loan is there in principle to making money to invest BACK in the business not spend on houses, holidays, and whatever  else .

So those that choose this way to achieve the business are their own regression in the making if they don't control it , some lots don't .

I feel for those who go under for genuine reasons , but the high flying loan mad junkies that go bust , " good riddance i say " 

I was taught the hard way , sell invest , sell invest , slower i admit& harder oh it is ,  but when it gets going and the takings are yours as well as the profits its a nice feeling as many of you old school traders will agree with . 

 

This 100%

[Arfur Dealy 823]

22 hours ago, Grantlfc81 said:

We don’t need Europe, they need us. We are a huge importer of their products.

Indeed

[trade vet 704]

Used car market in the U.K.is £50 billion and 7.5m sales.Whatever Brexit does it will not effect the market in the same way as past events like 3 day weeks,quadrupling of the oil price,petrol rationing,miners strikes,15% bank base rates and others.We still did business and just adjusted to the market.So don’t worry about a recession because if you are any good at the job ,you will be OK.

[metcars 397]

15 hours ago, J.T said:

I thought Labour were mad when they announced their idea for a £10 an hour minimum wage, then the Conservatives go one better and are suggesting £10.50 an hour. That's a 27% increase on the current minimum wage of £8.21 per hour. How can SME's in this climate where many are already struggling, afford to give their employee's a 27% pay rise?

The other problem is £10.50 an hour is approximately what a trainee nurse earns, now why would someone become a nurse with all that extra studying and the chance that they might kill someone when they can sweep the hospital floors for the same money and have none of the extra responsibility? They're either going to find it very difficult to recruit new nurses, or they will have to increase their wage and once you do that you'll have to increase every other nurse's pay grades. This knock on effect will occur in every business. 

I did have an employee until recently but it's just not an attractive proposition now to take someone else back on, as they're going to want £400 a week plus the extra contributions for NI and towards their pension. Then they're going to want me to pay them that amount not to come to work for 5 weeks of the year, whilst I end up doing their job and paying them not to. Then they want sick pay, maternity pay and there's employer liability insurance, my trade policy also increases etc etc.

I now have my cars valeted by the Syrians round the corner for £20 a car and finish them off myself to my standard, I'm saving money and don't have any of the headaches of being an employer and trust me it can be a real headache. My valeter decided to down tools one day and effectively sacked himself, then turns up to our meeting about it with a pile of colour pictures that he must have spent all night printing off of the dirty cars that I'd bought and made him clean! 

Only I could find a valeter that wanted me to have the cars valeted before he valets them!! He must have been taking these pictures for months, so I'm glad he left as he was an employment tribunal waiting to happen. 

that minimum wage increase won't kick in until '2025'. What will it be worth then? 

2 minutes ago, trade vet said:

Used car market in the U.K.is £50 billion and 7.5m sales.Whatever Brexit does it will not effect the market in the same way as past events like 3 day weeks,quadrupling of the oil price,petrol rationing,miners strikes,15% bank base rates and others.We still did business and just adjusted to the market.So don’t worry about a recession because if you are any good at the job ,you will be OK.

We just have to hope that our customers still have jobs and money to spend?

[Nick M.K. 574]

19 minutes ago, trade vet said:

Whatever Brexit does it will not effect the market in the same way as past events

I've said it before: Brexit will actually be good for the used car market. 

Used European car prices will go up, demand will go up because the new market will stall. I can't see how it won't and yet everyone needs a car, some people two, some people three. 

It will be worse for everything and everyone else though. 

[Arfur Dealy 823]

29 minutes ago, trade vet said:

Used car market in the U.K.is £50 billion and 7.5m sales.Whatever Brexit does it will not effect the market in the same way as past events like 3 day weeks,quadrupling of the oil price,petrol rationing,miners strikes,15% bank base rates and others.We still did business and just adjusted to the market.So don’t worry about a recession because if you are any good at the job ,you will be OK.

Bang on 

[awc1000 93]

Looking around the omens in my opinion look good, house market, car sales, high street retail, these have all slowed down but with no obvious reason apart from brexit caution, no spike in unemployment, no rise in interest rates, no obvious credit line withdrawal, so we can realistically presume it is just joe public being cautious about spending pre brexit, this could = pent up demand and the used car market could end up having a good november / december for a change, the only thing that could put the brakes on this is if the media carry on with the negative doom mongering, lets hope the media take the opposite stance and take the view "look how well we are doing without you" and stick some confidence back into the economy.

It will be interesting to see how the new car game pans out, we hear the manufacturers moaning about increased costs to "land" units here, and we hear them testing opinion by claiming list prices will have to go up, but they are unlikely to get away with this (unless premium brand) and are already having to deal with what has been a declining market for two years now (down to 2.5m units), with many franchise holders here now really struggling and posting annual profits between just 1% - 2%, a lot of these are near folding at the moment and need help fast, so the only solution is to either increase a dealers new car margin or for the manufacturer to reduce their margin, currently most franchises are circa 10-15% margin per unit but the manufactures margin has always been a bit of a mystery - though thought to be as high as 50% in some case's so as you can imagine there is plenty of scope for them to reduce list prices, iv'e seen it happen before in the mid 90's when the media got wind of how much merc made on a new s-class, the result in reduction was huge to the point where a current s-class now still costs the same as it did in 1995!

Of course nobody really knows what will really happen post brexit, but those sneeky bankers are usually the first to get wind of how things will pan out, keep an eye on them and it will give us a clue to what is likely to happen.

[XFS 70]

You can look at Brexit from a selfish point of view or the wider picture.

For me personally it’s been great. In my other business I get paid in US dollars, as the pound weakens, my income has gone up and up.

As for the car business, I am looking forward to next year. There will be opportunities whether we leave or not. From a selfish point of view I just want it decided one way or the other.

Looking at the wider picture, in the referendum I was undecided. Now I think leaving is one of the craziest things this country has ever done, up there with making Boris PM and almost on a par with the USA making Trump President.

However, the people voted and I just want it done and dusted, it won’t effect me much either way, it could certainly screw things for the younger generation though.

[CCC 31]

1 hour ago, XFS said:

You can look at Brexit from a selfish point of view or the wider picture.

For me personally it’s been great. In my other business I get paid in US dollars, as the pound weakens, my income has gone up and up.

As for the car business, I am looking forward to next year. There will be opportunities whether we leave or not. From a selfish point of view I just want it decided one way or the other.

Looking at the wider picture, in the referendum I was undecided. Now I think leaving is one of the craziest things this country has ever done, up there with making Boris PM and almost on a par with the USA making Trump President.

However, the people voted and I just want it done and dusted, it won’t effect me much either way, it could certainly screw things for the younger generation though.

Same. It will create opportunities for many, but if it's no deal then expect credit to tighten as banks will become wary of increased default rates. Younger generations already have enough problems, this might just add to them. As ever I think the richer you are the more likely you are to profit.....so the reality is likely to be a no-deal Brexit leading to a Labour government within a few years as Brexit is not the magic panacea to living conditions/costs that Boris made it out to be and the electorate will vote for the next set of promises they are given.

"The Revolution eats it's Babies", I suspect Boris and Dominic are about to learn this in the next 12 months.

[beenaroundtheblock 21]

On 10/6/2019 at 12:53 PM, Nick M.K. said:

And at the moment approx 80% plus of the population including 99% of the NI population...  

80% don't want to leave. What a load of rubbish, it may be 80% of Europeans, unfortunately they don't get a vote.

As for us screwing ourselves, I really don't think we have. We have always punched well above our weight, hence why people wish to come here from other countries. Personally I wouldn't have given them settled status. Imagine dumping 3 million people on a country and it's health service, schools etc. It just wasn't feasible, then you all moan about crime etc. Ridiculous. Unfortunately that's done now and no one will change that. 

Edited October 7, 2019 by beenaroundtheblock