Paul C

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Everything posted by Paul C

  1. Scrappage scheme or not, the new car (and the high end secondhand) is propped up by finance. I have a feeling a sensible government wouldn't keep propping it up because if they did so, it would collapse sooner or later. Also I think customers aren't stupid any more, those who can afford a new car can remember the 2009 recession and demand will go down - a lot - irrespective of an artificial government incentive. Also it targets only a fraction of those who might need help anyway - banger>new car is quite unusual. I sense the car industry will (have to) make the "adjustment" themselves - and it will be brutal for the UK. If you're involved in screwing together cars in the UK, or screwing new car customers on PCPs, use this time to learn a new skill.
  2. Maybe we should have a "reverse" scrappage scheme? The environmental emissions targets for 2040 are now met, due to the massive inactivity and downturn in the economy, with an amount of wiggle room too. Oil has crashed too. Oh and 2/3 of the petrol stations went out of business so your car needs 200+ miles range to get anywhere. So we don't actually need to ponce about with overly expensive electric cars any more. As an incentive to keep bangers going, they'll suspend the entire MoT scheme for a bit too. Said in jest of course, but there's an element of truth in it!!
  3. I have a funny feeling there won't be a scrappage scheme, or anything which incentivises buyers to buy (expensive) cars. The government will be under immense pressure from all areas of business, car manufacture is some way down on that list compared to others (pubs & restaurants?) A quote I like from one of these coronavirus documentaries: "If someone tells you they know what's going to happen in the future, they're lying".
  4. Yeah that's the thing though......he's sloppy, but I don't think (I never did find the underlying legislation though) he's actually breaking the law, I have a suspicion its 28 days and in any case, it would be very difficult to bring any action against the dealer. The reason you're stuck isn't the dealer's fault but the need to go abroad combined with the consequences of the lockdown because of the virus. Others (eg I think it was Ford, on one of the videocasts) have done exceptional things for their customers, in these exceptional times; for key workers who needed a car they "sold" them one and supplied a courtesy car which was ready to go in the meantime, I guess once lockdown eases they'll have the original purchased car prepped and ready to swap over. Usually you can spot a good dealer over a bad dealer - the bad ones are either blindingly obvious, or are also bad at hiding their sloppiness. Out of curiousity what price range are we talking about? £2k or £20k?
  5. There are good dealers and bad dealers.
  6. Ask the dealer to supply you with a courtesy or rental car?
  7. 99.9% of the cars the bloke will be looking at will have a funny MoT history though - it doesn't place that car at any disadvantage. So the car with lined up 12 month ones won't have an advantage. Now, servicing........
  8. I went off this: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-mots-for-cars-vans-and-motorcycles-due-from-30-march-2020
  9. Published on 25th March 2020: "Your car, van or motorcycle’s MOT expiry date will be extended by 6 months if it’s due on or after 30 March 2020" What happened was, a small fraction of vehicles with an MoT due 25-30th March HAD TO get an MoT pretty damn quick, before all the MoT places shut up shop (they could have stayed open but hardly any of them did/are doing), otherwise it would leave them without a valid MoT. If your vehicle had an MoT eg 1st June 2020, it would get the 6 month extension to 1st December. If it had an MoT to 28th Feb 2021; it will extend to 28th Aug 2021. etc. I guess they did this to prevent a "doubling of cars needing an MoT" when garages were obligated to re-open, around 30th September. a 6 month pause then restart, if you like. Of course, what its effect is that MoT stations no longer have any commercial incentive to stay open and do MoTs until 30th Sept, because the only ones which would need it are those cars whose MoT had expired previous to 30th March but now need to get back onto the road. A case of "if you had it, you don't need it; but if you didn't have it and need it you can't get it".
  10. He has a small section at the front labelled "BINCA RETAIL" where he sells the posh/better condition cars from. The majority are BINCA.
  11. Isn't the steering wheel on the wrong side?
  12. They only deliver now, no collections.
  13. 99.9% of cars will have an MoT history with an 18 month gap around the year 2020, I think it will be a non-issue.
  14. Temperature testing and wearing of masks is completely irrelevant. There simply isn't the accuracy in a handheld thermometer to be useful. Also, masks.....they're only really useful if you actually have the virus to stop spreading it to others, and only then if its not valved; and if you have the virus the current guidelines are to stay at home and self-isolate. Staff wearing masks.....probably make infection transmissability worse! N100 (FFP3) Mask + face visor + apron + gloves in a care setting (ie if need to get closer than the 2m or so) is effective IF they are taken off using proper aseptic technique, pretty useless otherwise. Are car dealers going to "suit up" then go for a test drive? Then be trained (nurses all have a degree now) to remove and dispose of them safely? Or keep them on all day? "Plain old" social distancing ie keeping your distance would work. Except it jars with selling. No more trying to get the customer inside, then to sit down any more. Its bad enough in a spacious posh showroom but most other places are, errrr.....cramped? And sitting in the back in a test drive.......not really. Same goes for any dealer who is going in now deep cleaning after a few weeks not at work......you know its already dead, don't you? Viruses don't survive outside their host.....this is GCSE Science stuff...... Given they're basically ineffective, temp testing and masks are likely to give a false sense of security meaning the ACTUAL measures which do prevent spread are not as well applied, meaning Reffective would be worse.
  15. Indeed! Any realistically accurate market information is 1) historical 2) based on actual buy-sell prices of sales. Then what usually happens is trends or significant factors are taken into account by statisticians/economic experts, to make a future prediction which might/might not be accurate. The fact is, the market is (obviously) paused at the moment so its impossible to gain any understanding of demand. And the upcoming factors to influence the market are largely unknown (we don't even know when lockdown is lifted? How? What Government influence or stimulus will occur, if any etc) Any comparisons with the 2007-8 recession need to be taken with a big pinch of salt. The best thing you can do? Be adaptable to a wide range of scenarios which might occur and not tie yourself up in debt. And if you're going to make an assumption, that cheap cars will do well and expensive ones won't, is as good as any.
  16. Another aspect is 2nd car ownership - it doesn't take much of a change in use (especially combined with a recession or future economic uncertainty) for households with 2+ cars to make the saving and only use one. I am sure you can work out that a bit more working from home and a bit less socialising will have an effect here. Also one thing I've seen is a certain amount of "talking up" the bounceback; or the stability in car values. The fact is, the car industry can only control the supply side of the equation and as shown in other posts and predictions, we don't know how big the recession will be. Entire sectors of the economy - like, pubs & restaurants - are wiped out. I've seen 20-35% contraction reported. I think it will hit home only when a big scalp is gone - ie a big franchise (in addition to Lookers, who are dead anyway); perhaps even a big manufacturer such as Ford or BMW will go too.
  17. For sure, there will be an amount of hysteresis in behaviours - more people working from home, less people using public transport. But don't forget also, longer term 1-3 years people will remember how clear the air was, and environmental considerations will be back with a bang! I predict any older diesel, or petrol cars over about group G tax, will be "encouraged" to no longer exist, either by some more daft rules in the MoT or a scrappage scheme or simply a raise in fuel prices for the petrols. Plug in hybrids will do another U turn and VW will actually finish writing the software for their ID3!
  18. VW Beetle has got to be up there? Or something like Caterham or Morgan? Or Land Rover (the original one!) if you include the Defender etc
  19. Its entirely down to interpretation. Cazoo interpreted the situation as being able to deliver, even before the recent clarification.
  20. Its one of the few cars I remember from the era (the other being Golf GTI). I drove a Vauxhall diesel, I honestly thought it was broken. It wasn't.
  21. I'm not 100% sure there is the need for an artificial incentive scheme like the previous scrappage scheme, but if they do do something I think it ought to also tackle pollution and other environmental considerations. So that might mean the reintroduction of a government contribution to EVs. Or......scrappage only for older diesels(!).
  22. Great article. I was thinking about this earlier, I predict secondhand car transporters will be difficult to find for the near future! I think we're happy we can clean the new car, but what about picking up a part-ex? Do we let the customer drive it onto the truck? What about a recovery tilt-bed instead (then we're into 7.5 tonners, tachos and O licences?) Ideally you'd chuck it on a spec lift but you can't tow except to recover on them (legally) etc.... Car trailer + 4x4 towcar would also take you over the 3.5ton limit. Lots of practical and legal considerations to gear up and actually do it in-house. Also more importantly....with cars being sanitised to within an inch of their life......does this spell the end to the "boiled sweet down the gap in the back seat" surprise???
  23. If I were younger and fitter I'd make all the same mistakes all over again! There is another element to the current issue. Since the "return to normality" is indeterminate, do we take the risk to 1) get staff back, possibly to earn less than their 80% of OTE, 2) make huge upheaval changes to the business to accommodate remote selling alongside all the contactless/social distancing/H&S at work concerns, only to bleed cash at a slightly lower rate than now. What about 6 months time? If the lockdown goes on (and on....) you'll probably be glad you acted now, because those others have missed out on the experience. And what on earth will the market look like in 6 months time? I know the various bodies which set car values have indicated they'll not let prices freefall downwards but what if people just become accustomed to being at home, demand for cars (and availability of finance) slumps never to return and its simply impossible for all but a small(er) proportion of the industry to survive long term?
  24. (I know its a bit grim but) I've stared death in the face in my early 20s - I was seriously ill in hospital, but lived, and am still here at 47. I don't know how I'd cope with CV19 virus - I might brush it off, but I might die. I'm not going to stop it doing what makes life worth living, though (of course, within the relevant government guidelines, legislation and moral framework we all live in). I've had a bucket list before and I've finished it - I might add a few more things though.
  25. To clarify, this is for (home) delivery, not re-opening of car showrooms. This also means "click and collect" style transactions would not be allowed at the dealership which remains closed to the public. And also, crucially, the other measures such as social distancing at work, mitigation of transmission via extra cleaning of surfaces, self-isolation if you're sick (including household members and sick pay from day 1) are all in place. I don't know your personal circumstances but I suspect you are in the group which have been strongly advised to self-isolate (as distinct from social distancing) and I don't know if you have others/staff who can take on the roles.