Latest on used car prices in exclusive interview with CAP HPI head of valuations

[James Baggott 227]

The used car market is facing a volatile first few weeks post-lockdown with prices likely to take a dip, says CAP HPI’s head of valuations.

In an exclusive interview with Car Dealer Magazine, Derren Martin revealed CAP HPI had not moved values for six weeks, but will begin to start adjusting them next week. Read the full story here:

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/used-car-prices-face-volatile-weeks-cap-prepares-start-moving-values-next-week/191818

[metcars 397]

Thanks James. Nice to hear what the CAP man is thinking, even if it’s pretty much what we already thought?

 

[Bmx Bandits 52]

It’s a good insight into the direction the market could take but I am surprised Derren Martin didn’t mention Finance Houses.

I think they have the potential to cause considerable damage to used car prices. If they act like they have in every recession so far, they will be quick to repossess stock from dealers and private customers in financial distress and just as quick to dump them into market and take what they can get for them.

To compound this, these are the very same institutions that will then become risk adverse and make it harder for the dealers to obtain finance for stocking and customers to purchase cars, increasing the likelihood of further price erosion.

It would be really interesting to hear his view on this. 

[craigpughcars 13]

You get customers checking the Auto Trader values , which on some cars are shocking compared to CAP and HPI , checked a value last week and couldn't believe how much lower the Auto Trader had dropped due to COVID , doesn't help when they put their value on the advert stating your price is too high when your price is inline with CAP etc .

Some public just look for the lowest price they can find and don't look at the quality of the vehicle just the price and will have the cheek to tell you that your vehicle is say £350 more with a warranty , fully valeted , serviced and with history , instead they will go with the cheapest 

[Contracts 68]

We had this a few years ago with a batch of Skodas.  We had 4 with near similar miles but 1 was mint, 2 average and 1 a bit of a dog.  All were advertised within £500 of each other but it was the mint one we got left with.

[Paul C 75]

I think in the next few - well its going to be months - short term price variations are going to be very difficult to predict. CAP have said they won't even adjust prices until there's 15% of a normal market. Auto Trader have commented on prices (see James's latest video) but that was based on the 10% or so of dealers who had done trading of some kind, through the lockdown (not sure how).

It would be fair enough to give any weight to those predictions if it were a typical 10% of the market, but its not, its the 10% who had everything in place to work around,  (or ignored!) the relevant restrictions. So its a bit of a distortion.

Its interesting they say dealers control the price trend (ie keep prices same.....prop up the market) but they all recognise supply and demand is there too. I have a funny feeling we'll be in a deep recession BUT the UK's will be shallower and quicker, long term, than Europe and USA because with Brexit. Its more important than ever to present the UK as a good place to do business and the government no longer have the constraints to offering the support (eg to various sectors or businesses if it chooses to) which being a member of the EU would have meant. The government really are throwing money at this at an astounding rate.

What does this mean for prices? Its inevitable there will be a slowdown in demand and a lowering of the average price of a car but that's easily achievable simply by consumers keeping their car for a bit longer, and the average age getting a bit older. New cars and manufacturers will suffer the most, secondhand not so much. But there's plenty of businesses which were structurally not quite right before CV19, it will accelerate their changes/demise.

[Casper 272]

12 minutes ago, Contracts said:

We had this a few years ago with a batch of Skodas.  We had 4 with near similar miles but 1 was mint, 2 average and 1 a bit of a dog.  All were advertised within £500 of each other but it was the mint one we got left with.

Same happened to us years ago with 4 smiley transits from a local company at 3 years and 5 years old probably even before autotrader values but unsure 

2 minters 1 was ruff and 1 2 years older that was kept due to one of the newer ones being fired damaged and written off 

the mechanic got one of the minters the ruff one sold first then the older one and the van the was left for a few months was in my opinion the best one of the 4 

guess the public just look at the cheapest price and think wow bargain for a three year old transit thing is it was only about £300 cheaper than than the minter but the boss did him a deal on his old transit i even pointed the customer in the direction of the minter as i knew him and his company but couldn't sway him though i think the boss tried a bit harder to get rid of the ruff van . 

[Bmx Bandits 52]

21 minutes ago, Casper said:

Same happened to us years ago with 4 smiley transits from a local company at 3 years and 5 years old probably even before autotrader values but unsure 

2 minters 1 was ruff and 1 2 years older that was kept due to one of the newer ones being fired damaged and written off 

the mechanic got one of the minters the ruff one sold first then the older one and the van the was left for a few months was in my opinion the best one of the 4 

guess the public just look at the cheapest price and think wow bargain for a three year old transit thing is it was only about £300 cheaper than than the minter but the boss did him a deal on his old transit i even pointed the customer in the direction of the minter as i knew him and his company but couldn't sway him though i think the boss tried a bit harder to get rid of the ruff van . 

I had this last year with a Auris I’d had for ages, kept reducing the price and couldn’t shift it, I then took in part exchange a last of the old shape Corolla and marked it up £300 less than the Auris, (the auris was cleaner, 18 months newer and with 15k less miles). I thought it would make the Auris look so cheap. Guess which one I sold first....... the Corolla?!!!!  

[Casper 272]

5 minutes ago, Bmx Bandits said:

I had this last year with a Auris I’d had for ages, kept reducing the price and couldn’t shift it, I then took in part exchange a last of the old shape Corolla and marked it up £300 less than the Auris, (the auris was cleaner, 18 months newer and with 15k less miles). I thought it would make the Auris look so cheap. Guess which one I sold first....... the Corolla?!!!!  

Its amazing and surprising some times isn't it 

[New year revolutions...... 197]

28 minutes ago, Bmx Bandits said:

I had this last year with a Auris I’d had for ages, kept reducing the price and couldn’t shift it, I then took in part exchange a last of the old shape Corolla and marked it up £300 less than the Auris, (the auris was cleaner, 18 months newer and with 15k less miles). I thought it would make the Auris look so cheap. Guess which one I sold first....... the Corolla?!!!!  

I hate it when I have an auris stuck up me

[Paul C 75]

1 hour ago, New year revolutions...... said:

I hate it when I have an auris stuck up me

Especially a go-faster one with wider rubber.