CCC

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Posts posted by CCC

  1. Posted

    The biggest fallout will ultimately be the number of personal and business bankruptcies unfortunately.

    Having lives through the impacts of a world war our parents and grandparents lived cautiously, unfortunately our generation less so.

    However, the idea of losing approx. 10% of the over 80’s is a scary prospect and right now dwarfs the long term impacts. Especially if you are in the Care Home business.

    On the upside, there should be a good supply of Honda Jazz’s....

  6. Posted

    The saying is “when the going gets tough, the tough get going”.

    So it’s not going to doom and gloom for everyone but IF there is a full blown recession of the back of the crisis then people will need to work a bit harder to make business a success.

    In my view a recession is a good thing,  it gets rid of weaker businesses and lets the strong survive and thrive. 

    It usual results in credit availability being tightened and that should stop the stupidity of buying prices which have hit margins for many.

    For example, It may create buying opportunities as cash strapped punters are forced to sell cars to pay mortgages (And if credit reduction chokes auction demand wbac values will drop).

    A recession is part of the natural cycle of business, just as Corona is just part of the nature’s cycle too.

    I’m not “worried” about what’s going to happen but I do think you have to be prepared for it.


    Such events are those that bring reality back to people, and cause changes in behaviour.
     

    Having lived through World Wars our grand parents were much more cautious and careful than later generations. This is not that, but it is likely to be a reminder of planning for tomorrow as well as living for today.

    5 minutes ago, XFS said:

    I,m not sure what effect it will have in the motor trade. I am in the fortunate position where I have no borrowings and can live without a wage, so I can ride it out...

    However, in my partners business which I am involved in, we are down 30K already... just like that. (that is a real tangible 30K, not a projected loss)if it goes on we lose another 30K in Sept/Oct. That would pretty much fuck up a business my partner has put her heart and sole into.

    What fucks me off so much is that all the people giving out the advice and managing the situation will get paid whatever...it won't effect them other than the inconvenience of maybe not being able to wipe their arse with their favourite brand of toilet paper.  

    Out here in the real world.....   

    Curious as to what business this is? That’s a serious hit in what is 3 weeks? 
     

    I hope you are able to trade through it and survive. 

  7. Posted

    56 minutes ago, Halfpenny said:

    LOL! Are you serious?  The virus made its way from central China to places like Italy and Iran. I doubt the Channel is much of an impediment. 

    Agree.  For example, my youngest daughter works for one of the big travel companies. Bookings have dropped off a cliff. Company are talking about unpaid leave... she and her boyfriend have bills to pay.....

    This is why people are putting off buying cars, not fear of being ill, fear or losing their job.

    Tourism down, trade interrupted, etc. As I said before we’re overdue a recession and I suspect this will be the trigger.

    Big, unnecessary purchases are the first thing to go. I suspect the cheapy market where people just need replacement transport will be ok, and may increase as people cut costs, but just replacing a car when it’s three years old because you fancy a change becomes an unnecessary luxury.

    The rule of putting money aside in the good times to see you through the bad times (and to take advantage of the buying opportunities it creates too) applies right now.

     

  8. Posted · Edited by CCC

    5% death rate in Italy (deaths/reported cases). That’s why it’s front page news, far higher than SARS, Swibe flu, etc.
     

    As someone old enough to remember real recessions (the Financial crisis was a walk in the park), then I’m wary. But a serious crash was well overdue anyway, get it done with.

    Buying prices should see some sanity return and there will always be an opportunity to sell.

    The ones who face the most risk are those that rely on volume and have a high level of debt. Same as ever was. 

  10. Posted

    Who knows. I think the reality is we’re overdue a recession, the central banks have been trying to avoid one for some reason by constantly lowering interest rates to keep the party going whatever the cost. If you look at profit levels for many businesses then they don’t match the stock valuations around. There is a good reason, why more FTSE chief executive’s have resigned/retired on the last 12 months than ever before.

    Corona was just the trigger, not the cause.
     

    In lots of ways it’s good for the waterline to drop a bit as there seem to be too many people out there happy to operate on wafer thin margins or trading purely on volume to keep debt under control. 

  11. Posted · Edited by CCC

    On 2/28/2020 at 5:25 AM, A & S said:

    £325 + vat for 50 car package 

    £350 + vat for 60 car package 

    £375 + vat for 70 car package 

    These prices are for the dealer promise package, they do another one call AA Approved which is more money.

    Per month?

    Our experience was that reviews mattered more to customers, and selling/describing the car properly.

  12. Posted

    Stock market valuations were getting insane though so this correction is way overdue. Creates a buying opportunity, though my experiences over the last 12 months have taught me to trust no business when it comes to long term profit. Too many companies cooking the books, accountancy firms turning a blind eye and investors with money to burn (cazoo springs to mind). Physical assets feel safer.

  13. Posted · Edited by CCC

    How did they get it so wrong? I guess the market just changed?

     

    Cheap finance, the euro making German cars cheaper than they were under the Deutschmark, and bmw/vag/mb lowering their quality standards.

    Good cars but everyone wants to look like they are minted not sensible.

    kids run mk1 focus’s probably the best second hand car that exists.

     

    Maybe they need to bring back Roger Clark....

  14. Posted

    8 hours ago, Tony F said:

    30+ years in the trade may have sucked the laughter and humour out of me, but their statement and projections did make me genuinely laugh out. Its just  bullshit PR for the investors. Overly ambitious and very naive. It will be interesting to read what excuses they will offer to investors in a year or 2, when it becomes apparent the financial projections are not going quite to plan.

    I wonder if Mr. Chesterman will be taking a nice wage from Cazoo whilst his investors lose all their money in 3 yrs? 

  15. Posted · Edited by CCC

    One thing I’ve learnt from here (and where we went wrong), is the more expensive the car, the better the part ex and the more opportunity to make a profit. We too started with the cheapies and moved up but wasted too long at the bottom end of the market. 

    I was like you, a knowledgeable enthusiast,  experienced in starting and running companies, and had dabbled in buying and selling and done nicely on the occasional opportunist car, but making good money from trading regularly was far harder, and I jacked it in when I got offers to do other stuff which gave a large regular income with half the effort. 
     

    I’d stick to potatoes. From my own experience I know where there’s muck there’s brass.
     

     

  17. Posted

    Sold an R53 Cooper S via FB and felt the same. In the end I binned the last price brigade and went with the buyer who seemed clued up and sensible (driving instructor) In some ways the faults helped, declared at time of sale and clear the car wasn’t a normal retail car. However....can’t pretend I didn’t worry about a call for the first few weeks after it sold. 

    • Like 1

  18. Posted

    Virtually no enquiries from their platform. I think the brand helped a bit as a start up before we had a few reviews but we dropped it as soon as we could. 
     

    I think AA are owned by Centrica (?), just trying to milk the brand name, no interest in delivering value for money.

  20. Posted

    Surely the price markers will drive down market prices in a spiral? Dealers lower prices to get to market valuation and so the average price continues to fall, so dealers lose prices, etc.?

    (though hopefully not all would engage in such madness though I’m sure many will).

    Thus margins lower and companies go out of business decreasing Autotraders client base (as dealers pay their wages, not buyers).

    At best they are making AT a less attractive option than EBay, FB, etc?

  21. Posted

    On 1/24/2020 at 7:30 AM, Padstar said:

    A lot of time can be wasted trying to source cars for people. By the time you’ve found one and let the customer know they’ve gone and bought one without letting you know. Without a hefty deposit I wouldn’t bother. I just say from now on if something comes in or if there’s something we would be prepared to go on with ourselves if you didn’t buy it. Then there’s not much time wasted. 

    This exactly based on similar experiebce

  22. Posted · Edited by CCC

    We had a customer try it on claiming we were liable for new rear shocks 6 months after he purchased the car as his mate has told him he could as the fault must have been there when he bought it.  I just sent a very “legal” style letter quoting the relevant parts of the CRA which recognises that on older cars faults can be random and pointing out the age of the vehicle, mileage and the price paid vs the cost of the vehicle new. We’d had it serviced and MOT’d before sale to prove roadworthiness and condition at point of sale.

    Never heard from him again after that.

    Even though in this case it’s clearly BtB the its worth reading the CRA with respect to used cars as it’s relatively good at recognising the issues that may occur with older cars and the reality of wear and tear. 
     

    The problems you get when you actually give a warranty with the vehicle is a different kettle of fish mind, and if you sell vehicles locally arguing the toss about the CRA may make you right but not popular in the neighbourhood. 

  23. Posted

    The best way to make a small fortune is to start with a big one :)

     

    if Autotrader has their heads screwed on they’d be out bidding CarGurus on Google to stop them getting established, however I suspect they are too focussed on short term profit to invest in maintaining their market share.

    Big benefit car gurus have with private ownership will be that the owner can keep pumping money in without anyone to answer to.

    in reality we’re all losers from this as customers are now spread across multiple platforms (With subsequent increase in costs to reach buyers), go back 20 years and it was Autotrader or local paper only. 

  24. Posted

    55 minutes ago, Grantlfc81 said:

    I know how it works, I ran a web marketing company for 10 years, however those adverts are still being paid for by car gurus. Also seeing a lot of tv advert as well. 
     

    they are working well for us anyway.....

    Curious to know what level of profits car gurus are making if they are paying for Google advertising to drive traffic.