Philip Nothard

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Content Count

    123

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    4

Posts posted by Philip Nothard

  1. Posted · Edited by Philip Nothard

    For those interested in reporting what's happening at the sharp end of the industry - 

    Click here 

    As we are now firmly in September and the end of Q3 - focus is very much of used stock availability and the balance between supply and demand. Impact of WLTP on used car supply through the remainder of 2018 and into 2019 remains to be seen.

    For July's market overview, please click the link below. 

    Click here

    Thanks in advance and feel free to share. 

     

  2. Posted

    25 minutes ago, RH Trading said:

    Any pain points or opportunities ahead of the September market? - August buoyant for us, seem to be getting a lot of response, sales YoY up 11% with same stock holding, trade prices due to dealer demand at auction seem to very strong would be biggest pain point and have no option but price stock accordingly,

    Is stock supply holding relative to demand? don't quite know what this means? We buy in line with demand so our cars don't tend to stick around too long. our days to turn is consistently around 34 days. the availability of the more in demand cars at auction seem ok but as mentioned above everyone's chasing the same cars so pushing up prices

    Will August finish ahead or behind 2017? ahead, interest in diesels has also gone up, notice my advert views of the diesel stock up in past 4-6 weeks, customer's haven't a clue or don't care about WLPT I find. Footfall strong and Advert views on AT up, so fingers crossed for a good Q3

    How would you describe the overall market? think it depends on how successful new car sales are and how well franchised dealers do, we tend to boom 4-6 weeks after new registration, pick up a lot of decent part ex but think the manufacturers discounts will start to end and cheap PCP deals will start to peter out.September started well (last weekend) still as strong as August thankfully

    you still in the IMDA Phil?

    Thanks, RH Trading, very useful and interesting.  

    I'm involved a little as a none voting advisor these days, as I need to remain impartial. 

  3. Posted

    On 31/08/2018 at 7:42 PM, NOACROSS said:

    Yes, and I fail to see why you can’t answer, join in the ‘real world’ on here and the sarcasm as you put it!

    Thanks for showing you are in fact a real person!

    Always here NOACROSS and it's my name and picture (yes corporate unfortunately on here)n :-) 

    More than happy to have telephone or email conversations and invite forum members to feedback distributions and include in the monthly survey. 

    Hope that helps. 

    Philip

  4. Posted

    On 31/08/2018 at 5:25 PM, trade vet said:

    I am so pleased Mr Northard has surfaced.The guys on here are the front line,straight talking,trade entrepreneurs who mostly make up Manheim customers ( I have to declare I am mainly a BCA Guy).I think you should come on here more often and join in the banter.You could take notice of us more than these franchised dealership suits many of whom could not value a 12 year old Micra.I have predicted that diesel stuff will rise.Not very PC but what are your thoughts and of course the continued failure of CAP to follow the market which impacts retailers doing finance deals.Low CAP values must be great for those auction groups guaranteeing vendors 97% of CAP Clean.You buy stuff now and it could be a grand over CAP Clean and you have bought a cheap car.What is going on,we would like to hear your thoughts......So thank you again.

    That is always an interesting debate but essentially an auctions job is to maximise the return of the vehicle but I know what you mean - as its a balance between reflecting the market and predicting it.  The petrol and diesel are again interesting, as we know that it's all about supply and demand, and with the continual decline of diesel in the new car market and focus on petrol, the balance will shift.  I've always reported that there is a demand for diesel in the dealer retail market and values will and are remaining strong - obviously for the right models which should be a diesel for the right journey and driver. 

  5. Posted

    4 hours ago, Arfur Dealy said:

    I am sure he is a lovely bloke, takes the kids to the park etc. But, there is never a response or thank you.

    6 minutes ago, Arfur Dealy said:

    Thanks for your response.

    Thanks, Arfur much appreciated. 

    For clarity and hope it helps, I will try and respond when applicable to constructive and rational questions - not just banter or obvious sarcasm.  I want to share more insight on this forum as I used to do when it initially launched, as its where you can gather reality and not 'fluffy' political responses which have an agenda.  On this occasion, I forgot to have the notification option tagged. 

    Cheers again and always here to represent ALL the industry. 

    Thanks again, Philip

  6. Posted

    38 minutes ago, umesh said:

    Phil Nothard is a great man! He helps when he can everyone in the motortrade, Have known him for many years , I've asked on many forums inc this on his behalf for monthly input once he has all the info he always shares it, it gives us all a snap shot of what is happening in the country, trends, etc etc, All useful info in my opinion. 

    It takes less than 2 minutes to complete the survey, I've always asked and thanked everyone for the input from me and from Phil. 

    He now works for Cox and previously CAP for those who don't know his full history. 

    Umesh 

    Thanks, Umesh - as you know I never want to forget the guys at the sharp end of the industry and always here to support where possible and raise questions that need asking.  

  7. Posted

    On 29/08/2018 at 5:17 AM, Arfur Dealy said:

    So.....we are all ok then..... :unsure:

     

    On 28/08/2018 at 9:06 PM, trade vet said:

    Pain points-Continued general rise in cost of sales,Euro Parts decline in service.Difficulties hiring good all round technicians which applies not only in UK but also in Europe and the US.Govrnment failure to crack down on profiteering and the abuse of tax payers money by Motability......and of course Autotrader and auction buyers fees.

    Opportunities,lots of good ex lease diesel stock should be hitting the market at right prices.But diesel prices will rise.Joe Public in most of the UK are not PC and not effected by corporate ladder bullshit and still prefer to have a nice high spec diesel outside their front door.

    Stock-There remains no excuse for traders not being able to buy stock.If they cannot buy online,they have to ‘get on their bike’ to find it.Driving up and down the country used to be normal.

    August Trade - It is hard for most of us to compare because of rising costs,It is OK talking about number of sales but it is the bottom line that counts.Dealer groups employ bean counters to cover up and produce all sorts of t/o figures to show them in a good light,we don’t.If you asked Trevor Finn what Pendragen bottom line was for last month,he would probably know but he would not tell you,it could effect their share price.Look at Vertu and their TV advertising deals of late,they must be struggling,but not according to their CEO.It is going to be harder for the big dealer group bullshit guys.( not Pendragen)

    The overall market for small independent pros like a lot of the guys on here,remains good because they have the knowledge and ability to adapt.You are going to see some Dealer groups forced into expanding into the used market,but because of their lack of knowledge and experience some may fail.The guys who run Car Giant,Wales Trade Centre,Big Motoring World,Arnold Clark and Pendragen to name a few are top premier league players and are not effected by changes in market conditions.

    Over and out.

    Thanks, Trade Vet - any insight from those at the front line is appreciated, in particular, constructive and none-cynical.  It is, without doubt, a diverse industry we operate within and I want to ensure that any feedback or opinion I offer is reflecting all the industry and not just those at the top or with the biggest overdraft. 

    21 minutes ago, Mark101 said:

    Element of truth but only affects some models with others having to be reg before year end.  Wife works for these brands (and others). VW saying costs in excess of £1bn

    Mark101 and DCS01 - there seems to be a lot going on around supply but not very well communicated.  Rumors of pre-registration but over the last few months by some OEMs but others are doing one-off large deals.  The risk is, that if new cars are not available to generate the income, then the pressure in the used car market will increase and demand for the 'ready to retail' will become tougher, plus if there are fewer retail deals with good quality retail part-exchanges, then those guys will also be in the wholesale market buying stock.  

    This coupled with the impact in the Lease/CH sector from WLTP due to the shortage of new cars, the de-fleet volumes could also be impacted.  

    It's a positive market in used cars at the minute but going to challenge everyone to find the stock at the right price to make a margin. 

  10. Posted

    With a great deal challenging the industry as we approach the end of the 2nd quarter of the year. Reports across the network are very diverse with regards the new and used activity, although in general as always proving resilience to the external pressures. 

    As you will notice, I have maintained the core of these surveys, as the trends and analysis remain the key market indicators for the industry. I have however expanded the coverage of sentiment and will review monthly, and incorporate key industry topics, as they become relevant. 

    Please feel free to comment where relevant, as the individual views/sentiments are very useful to understand the trends in more detail.

    If I can support with any specific market feedback/insight, please don't hesitate to contact me directly, and I will certainly endeavor to assist where possible.

    Please feel free to share through the industry forms and media platforms and appreciating the timing, any participation is gratefully received. 

    I will attempt to close the Survey this Wednesday 6th June. 

    Click here

  12. Posted

    How is the market performing?

     

    Used cars? New Cars? Margins? Supply?

     

    How would you describe both the opportunities and challenges currently facing you, with values heading into June slightly ahead of last year in the main but some pressures in the executive models?

     

    Below are a couple of links to our latest market reports:

     

     

    Manheim a vision for the future of remarketing

    https://www.slideshare.net/PhilipNothard/manheim-a-vision-for-the-future-of-remarketing

     

     

    Cox Automotive Market Overview - April 2018

    https://www.slideshare.net/PhilipNothard/cox-automotive-market-overview-april-2018

  21. Posted

    Seems to be very mixed out there at the minute, with this morning SMMT report, indicating growth YOY of +3% and +" for Private?  Although, reports of continual tactical registrations on the last day, even though plenty remain in the market from last year.

    Conversions at the auctions are reported to be healthy, and stock described as steady but no concerns of over-supply....YET!!!! 

  22. Posted

    Hi, if I can be of any assistance - please don't hesitate to get in touch and your more than welcome to be involved with a monthly market survey done each month by the dealers, for the dealers.

    philip.nothard@cap.co.uk

    • Like 1

  23. Posted

    Hi Jon, although I'm not a dealer, if I can be of assistance in anyway, please don't hesitate to contact me.

    I try and share knowledge, insight and obviously do the monthly dealer survey.

    Feel free to contact me direct philip.nothard@cap.co.uk

    • Like 1